Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SH is up 6 cents and near 14.86. SMH is near 451.4. BOH is near 65.21. CH is up 1 cent and near 6.453. WH is up 1 cent and near 7.52. KWH is up 4 cents and near 8.51. MWH is up 1 cent and near 9.17. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is marginally higher. Crude and softs are up on talk China will try to stimulates its economy. Metals are lower. Zelenskyy will address US and Congress today in Washington.
Argentina forecast is drier. Argentina still celebrating World Cup victory. SH is back near the upper end of recent trading range on Argentina and S Brazil crop/weather worries. Soybean board crush margins are higher. Soyoil share back to 42 pct. Matif rapeseed futures making fresh weekly 2022 lows. Palmoil futures are higher on flood worries. Indonesia though is cheaper and there is ongoing worries about Asian demand. US soybean export window is slowly closing.
US HRW wheat is up due to upcoming cold and the overnight trade is up 4 in KC. KS temp lows forecasted -25F. at Wheat acres enrolled in USDA insurance programs showed a 1.6 million increase over last year, which is worth about 70 mil bu production. France wheat exports are at 7.5 mmt with 2.5 left for export. Farmer holding supplies. Exporter and domestic miller now fighting for what is left in supplies. There remains a large Russia and Ukraine vessel line up waiting for inspection. North Africa is dry.
Argentina and S Brazil forecast is drier. CH continues to trade sideways around 6.50. Brazil export supplies is in decline. Some look for more evidence of slowing US ethanol and corn export demand. Winter blizzard and cold temps could slow grain movement in North US Midwest.
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