Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
October Crude Oil was slightly lower early Friday, inside Thursday’s range as the market weighed hints of diplomacy against mixed reports on the status of oil flows out of the Persian Gulf. Tehran has reportedly agreed to draw up a list of conditions to restore normal traffic after a Qatari emissary pressed the Iranians to respect freedom of navigation. US military commanders stated that American forces have successfully cleared mines from the strait. Shipping data indicated that seven commodity vessels transited the strait on Thursday, down from 17 a day earlier and below the 10-day average of 15. Goldman Sachs said on Thursday that it estimates recent total Gulf exports at 15-16 million barrels per day, 7-8 million bpd below pre-war levels but 5-6 million above their lowest point in March. Other estimates have shipments through the strait at 6-8 million per day. Satellite images reportedly show Saudi Arabia ramping up oil loadings inside the Persian Gulf and perhaps reorienting shipments away from the Red Sea because of Houthi attacks. Trump administration officials reportedly are working on a deal to secure long-term access to a portion of Venezuela’s crude reserves, which may be a way to replenish the SPR. Venezuela is also considering leaving OPEC. Russia warned it could strike British military targets inside and outside Ukraine in response to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian territory using British-supplied long-range cruise missiles.
PRODUCTS
Product prices edged higher early Friday, holding support better than crude oil. US gasoline and distillate stocks are at their lowest levels for this point in the season in at least six years.
NATURAL GAS
October Natural Gas was lower early Friday, with the bulls clearly disappointed with the market’s failure to push through the $3 level on Thursday. The EIA gas storage report on Thursday was bullish against expectations, with storage for the week ending August 21 at 3,184 bcf, +15 bcf from the previous week and below the average trade expectation calling for +20 (range +15 to +27) and a five-year average change for this week of +33. Storage was -1.0% from a year ago and +5.0% above the five-year average versus -0.9% and +5.8% the previous week. Reuters reported that preliminary data from LSEG indicated feedgas deliveries to US LNG plants climbed to 18.5 billion cubic feet per day on Thursday, highest since late April, was Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi plant and Freeport LNG, the third- and fourth-largest LNG export facilities in the US appear to be coming fully back on line after recent maintenance. Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants is around 17.1 bcfd so far in August versus 17.2 bcfd in July and the record 17.4 bcfd in June. LSEG also said average gas output in the US lower 48 states is running around 111.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, up from a previous record of 110.7 bcfd in July.
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