Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower ahead of potential tariffs. Gold is higher. US Fed kept rates unchanged and will wait on rate change until there is more data on inflation. Trump wants lower rates.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.52. China is closed for holiday. S Brazil and C and N Argentina saw rains. Rains are forecast next week. Delay in Brazil soybean harvest is firming export prices. C Brazil yields near record. S Brazil yields could be down 20 pct vs ly. Brazil prices dropped due to increase farmer selling. Argentina forecast is dry. W EU is too wet. Black Sea and Ukraine is too dry. Russia temps turn colder next week. EU crusher switching from rapeseed and sunseed to soybeans. SH-SK spread has widened out to -15. SMH-SMK spread record wide at -8.80. March board crush margin is down to recent lows and 110. US export sales are est at 450-1,700 mt vs 1,491 last week.
CORN
CH is near 4.94. China is closed for holiday. S Brazil and C and N Argentina saw rains. Rains are forecast next week. W EU is too wet. Black Sea and Ukraine is too dry. Russia temps turn colder next week. CH-CK spread has widened out to -11. Threat of US tariffs against Mexico could have retaliations if Mexico issues tariffs against US corn. Window for Brazil farmers to plant the safrina crop is slowly closing. Some Brazil farmers are considering switching from corn to sorghum. Domestic demand for Brazil corn use for ethanol continue to increase. US export sales are est at 850-1,800 mt vs 1,660 last week.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.60. KWH is near 5.78. MWH is near 6.14. WH-WK is near -12. Specs covered wheat shorts after one meteorologist suggested the US winter wheat crop could be down 15 pct due to winterkill and dry weather. W EU is too wet. Black Sea and Ukraine is too dry. Russia temps turn colder next week. France rains beginning to drop crop ratings and production prospects. Increase Argentina wheat sales could offset lower Russia and EU crops. Russia remaining export outlook suggest export at 11-12 mmt or half last year. US export sales are est at 150-500 mt vs 164 last week.
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