Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is unchanged and near 14.04. SMZ is near 406.3. BOZ is near 65.40. CZ is down 2 cents and near 6.20. WZ is down 3 cents and near 7.67. KWZ is down 3 cents and near 8.43. MWZ is down 4 cents and near 8.83.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and cotton are lower. Commodities worried about global recession and demand lower than supply.
Weekend rains feel across parts of E SD, S MN, E IA, S WI, most if IL, MI and parts of IN and OH. Rains also feel across W TX and US SE. US Midwest 6-10 day forecast is normal to above temps and normal rains. 8-14 is cool with above normal rains south below normal north plains.
Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour this week. 12 of last 20 years tour has underestimated USDA Sep soybean yield, 7 above. 13 years of 20 tour corn yield was below USDA Sep( 2 bpa) 7 years above (1 bpa).
Corn futures are lower. Weekend US Midwest rains weighed on futures. Corn basis is firm but could begin to soften as US harvest nears. Bulls looking for increase demand post US harvest and CZ could test 7.00. CZ for now is in a 5.80-6.40 range. Most look for US 2022/23 corn carryout near 1,425 vs USDA 1,388. Lower ethanol use could increase carryout from USDA.
Soybean futures are unchanged. Weekend US weather, uncertain China demand and talk of higher South America 2023 supply versus higher nearby demand keeps soybean futures rangebound. US crushers still bidding up for beans before harvest. SX support 13.75. Resistance near 14.50. Most look for US 2022/23 soybean carryout near 260 vs USDA 245. Higher crush is offset by lower exports.
Wheat futures are lower. Wheat resistance due to talk of increase Russia and Ukraine wheat exports, slow US export demand and higher US Dollar. WZ support 7.50. Resistance 8.00.
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