Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are higher. SX is up 6 cents and near 14.18. SMZ is near 414.0. BOZ is near 64.96. CZ is unch and near 6.85. Overnight low was 6.78. WZ is up 5 cents and near 8.75. Overnight low was 6.78. KWZ is up 5 cents and near 9.34. Overnight low was 9.14. MWZ is up 4 cents and near 9.31. Overnight low was 9.12.
Trade will be watching any news concerning Black Sea grain exports. Ukraine is making unexpected progress in the Donbas region. Russia and China are in trade talks. Russia and Turkey will have talks about the Ukraine export corridor deal. Some feel Russia may not renew the deal when it expires in November.
There is a report out that there is a list of 33 things that the World knows about the coming food shortages. US 2022 HRW crop is the smallest since 1963 but in 1963 US population was only 182 million versus 329 today. This could be the lowest US corn harvest is at least a decade.
Year to date shipments of carrots in US is down 45 pct, sweet corn down 20 pct and sweet potatoes down 13 pct. Three fourths of US farmers say this year’s drought is hurting their harvest. Oregon cattle numbers are down 41 pct due to drought, Texas 50 pct and New Mexico 43 pct. At least 40 pct of US has been suffering drought for 101 consecutive weeks. EU is suffering from worse drought in 500 years. France crop losses could be as much as 45 pct. Italy crop losses could be 80 pct. East Africa drought may have resulted on deaths of 7 million animals. Central China may be facing worst drought in recorded history. One third of Pakistan was under water. 65 pct of rice, corn, cotton and what crops have been washed away. Global prices of fertilizer have tripled since 2021. Demand for US food Banks is now higher that during height of Covid pandemic. World Food Program estimate that 828 million people around the World go to bed hungry. UK risk group est that 101 of 198 countries saw increase in civil unrest.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
