Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Tough week for commodities, energies and equities. Grains are higher. SX is up 13 cents and near 14.08. SMZ is near 410.9. BOZ is near 63.92. CZ is up 5 cents and near 6.63. WZ is up 12 cents and near 8.06. KWZ is up 11 cents and near 8.79. MWZ is up 12 cents and near 8.98.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, coffee, cocoa and sugar are higher. Copper and cotton are lower.
Thursdays US grain futures, Dalian oilseed futures and Matif grain futures were all lower. The strong Dollar, worries about inflation and recession, low Ukraine corn prices, low Russia wheat prices, talk of record US soybean crop and record Brazil 2023 record soybean crop, increase China covid restrictions, lower Crude oil prices and results of IAEA investigation of Ukraine nuclear plant triggered increase fund long liquidation. Some evening up is supporting overnight US futures but Dalian palmoil and soyoil are sharply lower.
China city of 18 million people of Sheizen is on strict covid restrictions. Chegdu 21 million people are lockdown. China July vegoil imports were down 41 pct vs ly, Soyoil down 72 pct. China economic data suggest slower economic growth and reduce raw material imports.
Ukraine fob corn prices near $260 for Oct vs US 318 has weighed on corn futures. Ukraine export pace is slow but China and S Korea are buying Ukraine corn. Grain movement from farm to port is slow given transportation cost near $100-150 and corn price to farmer $100-150. Wheat price to farmer is below $150.
Egypt bought 120 mt from Russia near $300. There had been talk prices are as low as $285 vs US SRW near $336. Argentina wheat crop rated only 17 pct G/E. 40 oct of crop in Cordoba, La Pampa and Santa Fe is dry. French corn rated 45 pct G/E with 1 pct harvested.
US Midwest weather is warm and dry. Rains confined to wet deep south. EU is dry except central areas. Canada is dry. Ukriane and Russia is dry with cool temps. Central China is dry.
CBOT is closed Monday for US Labor Day Holiday.
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