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Too Many World Soybeans


Grains are mixed. SK is up. CK is unch. WK is unch. KWK is down. MWK is down. Stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Cocoa at new highs.


SK is near 11.61. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. US export commit is down 19 pct vs ly and USDA revised est of down 15. US soymeal export commit is up 14 pct vs ly USDA est of up 8 pct. USDA increased US soybean carryout 25 mil bu due to lower exports. USDA left US crush unchanged. USDA raised US soyoil end stocks and now are above last year. USDA left Brazil combined Brazil and Argentina crops at 205 mmt vs 187 last year. Private est were closer to 197. USDA left China soybean imports at 105 mmt vs private estimates closer to 97.5. There are too many World soybeans for futures to rally.

CK is near 4.28. US export commit is up 17 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 26. USDA lowered US corn carryout 50 mil bu due to higher domestic use. USDA left US exports unchanged. USDA left Brazil combined Brazil and Argentina crops at 179 mmt vs 173 last year. Private est were closer to 160. Brazil corn futures made new lows. USDA dropped S Africa corn crop to 5 year low of 14 mmt. There remains uncertainly concerning Ukraine export pace but experts feel disruptions may be limited. US east Midwest weather looks favorable for planting. East, south and SE look wet and could slow plantings.

WK is near 5.51. KWK is near 5.82. MWK is near 6.33. US south plains forecast is mostly dry. US export commit is up 3 pct vs ly and USDA est of down 4 pct. USDA increased US 2023/24 wheat carryout 25 mil bu due to lower feed use. USDA left Australia wheat crop at 26 mmt vs 40 ly. USDA left Russia crop at 91.5 mmt but raised exports 1 mmt to 52.0. USDA dropped India wheat stocks to 6.5 mmt vs 9.5 last year and 19.5 in 2022. Matif traded lower after USDA raised EU stocks and lowered exports.


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