Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
TGIF. USDA report day. Grains are mixed. SU is down 1 cent and near 15.19. SMU is near 461.3. BOU is near 69.25. CU is up 1 cent and near 6.31. WU is down 8 cents and near 8.02. KWU is down 8 cents and near 8.80. MWU is down 6 cents and near 9.15.
US stocks are higher and US Dollar is higher. Crude is inch near 92.16. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar, cocoa, and cotton are all lower.
Aug USDA crop estimate has taken less importance after USDA NASS no longer uses official farmer survey and objective yield on this report. First official USDA NASS report is September. Today’s US corn and soybean crop estimate is still a best guess by WOB. Annual Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour is in 2 weeks.
War continues in Ukraine. Some concern over Ukraine largest nuclear power plant. China resumed war drill around Taiwan. US Midwest is warm and dry. One model still looks for Midwest rains early next week. The other is drier. West EU still hot and dry with wildfires and declining river levels. Trade still trying to decide what US Fed interest rate policy will be after recent jobs and CPI reports.
Trade estimate for US corn yield is 175.9 vs USDA 177.0. 2021/22 corn carryout 1,512 and 2022/23 1,402. CU between 6.00 support and 6.50 resistance.
Trade estimate for US soybean yield is 51.1 vs USDA 51.5. 2021/22 soybean carryout 226 and 2022/23 230. SU is above all moving averages with 14.50 support and 15.50 resistance.
Trade estimate for US 2022 wheat crop at 1,791 mil bu vs USDA 1,781. 2022/23 US wheat carryout at 650 vs USDA 639. WU is still near season lows with 7.50 support and 8.50 resistance.
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