Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
TGIF. Grains are higher. SH is up 10 cents and near 14.80. SMH is near 468.5. BOH is near 62.79. CH is up 5 cents and near 6.58. WH is up 5 cents and near 7.52. KWH is up 5 cents and near 8.44. MWH is up 3 cents and near 9.12. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. US Dollar is higher. Silver, copper and cotton are higher. Gold, coffee, cocoa and sugar are lower.
Not a lot of new news in soybeans. Argentina and S Brazil are still dry. Dalian soybean, soymeal, SBO and palmoil futures are lower. There is concern about China demand for US soybeans. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 500-1,000 mt. China may have bought 5 March cargoes from Brazil. China relaxing property tax rules may be offering support to commodities. Brazil soybean and soymeal export prices are lower than US. Argentina soybean crop rating dropped to 8 pct G/E. There is talk that Argentina may be buying Brazil soybeans. USDA Jan 12 report key with trade focusing on US demand and Argentina crop size.
Cron futures are higher on what some feel is profit taking after drop of 32 cents this week. Argentina and S Brazil are still dry. There is concern about China demand for US corn. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 400-900 mt. Ukraine export prices are lower than US. Russia is calling for 36 hour cease fire. Russia still wants Ukraine to agree to give up territory losses while Ukraine wants Russia to agree to leave taken territory. Argentina crop is rated only 13 pct G/E vs 41 ly. 41 pct of crop is pollinating in hot/dry weather. USDA Jan 12 report key with trade focusing on US demand and Argentina crop size. Weekly US ethanol data was bearish with production down 12 pct from last week and stocks up 14 pct from ly. Drop in Nat gas prices and corn prices and higher DDG prices is helping margins. US gas consumption is declining.
Wheat futures are trying to bounce off recent lows. Since the New Year, WH has loss 60 cents. Funds turned sellers on lower Russian prices and slow demand for US wheat. WH support 7.20 with resistance 7.60. US plains remain dry. N Africa is dry but import demand remains slow due to concern about revenue to pay for imports. USDA Jan 12 report is not expected to see major changes in US/World wheat numbers. Weekly US export sales are estimated near 200-575 mt.
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