Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains calls are mixed. SX is down 9 cents and near 14.10. SMZ is near 412.4. BOZ is near 64.84. CZ is up 1 cent and near 6.67. WZ is down 4 cents and near 8.06. Overnight high was 8.25. KWZ is unch and near 8.76. Overnight high was 8.94. MWZ is up 1 cent and near 8.91. Overnight high was 9.07.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is unch.
US rains confined to E, Delta and SE. WCB and S Plains are dry. EU dry, W normal. Russia is dry,
Corn is slightly higher. Dalian corn futures are near 10 week high. Some feel CZ is now in a 6.50-7.00 range. Some analyst est of US corn yield near 170 and strong US domestic basis offsets slow demand for UIS corn exports and approaching US harvest. Argentina is dry. S Brazil is seeing normal rains. EU is dry. EU feed grain imports could exceed 20 mmt. Hungary corn crop could be only near 3.0 mmt vs 6.3 ly. S Korea is tendering for corn. Ukraine and Russia is excluded.
Soybean is lower. Overnight, Dalian soybean and soymeal futures are lower. Palmoil is lower. RSO and soyoil are higher. Slow China buying, lower Brazil prices and talk of record US 2022 soybean crop and record 2023 Brazil soybean crop offers resistance. More China city Covid lockdowns could slow their economy even more and reduce need for raw material imports. China Yuan is at 2 year low. Strong US domestic soybean and soymeal demand offers support. Talk of lower US final soybean exports and record US 2022 soybean crop offers seasonal resistance. Argentina has new 200 peso for farmers. Blue rate 280. Argentina farmers have 21 mmt of 42 mmt crop yet to sell.
Wheat futures remain range bound. WZ 7.70-8.50. Lower Russia export prices offer resistance. Tight global non Russia exporters stocks to use ratio offers support. Slow World buyers import demand is offers resistance. Iraq bought 100 mt US HRW. Inflation and Russia cutting off gas to EU permanently, US recession and China covid restrictions, central China drought and property loan crisis could lower their food and fuel demand. Ukraine war could increase grain logistic and slow grain movement there and lower 2023 crop acres.
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