Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SH is up 4 cents and near 14.70. SMH is near 450.7. BOH is near 62.00. CH is up 2 cents and near 6.56. WH is up 8 cents and near 7.63. KWH is up 10 cents and near 8.72. MWH is up 9 cents and near 9.25. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude, gold, silver, copper, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. Both US and EU Central Banks are scheduled to raise interest rates this week. China Covid cases are increasing.
Soybeans are marginally higher on forecast of drier Argentina and S Brazil weather. US soybean exports are down 8 pct vs ly vs USDA estimates of down 5 pct. Brazil farmer has slowed new sales. Trade estimates Brazil crop from 151-160 mmt vs USDA 152.0 Weekend Argentina rains triggered selling of beans and meal futures on Monday. Trade estimates Argentina crop from 42-50 mmt vs USDA 49.5. Matif rapeseed futures made new 2022 lows. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower. Soyoil and palmoil were higher.
Corn and wheat futures are higher on continued concerns about Ukraine export pace after weekend bombings of the Odesa port. Bad weather and slow vessel inspections has slowed Russian grain exports. US corn exports are down 32 pct from last year. Both Brazil and Ukraine corn export prices are lower than US. Still, there are no Brazil corn export prices after January. Argentina corn crop could be as low as 43 mmt vs USDA 55. Wheat futures continue to try to add lower Black Sea export pace and cold US temps premium.
US wheat exports are down 3 pct from ly and in line with USDA estimate. Argentina wheat crop could be near 11.8 mmt vs USDA 12.5 and exports near 6.5 vs USDA 7.5 and 16.5 ly.
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