Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are higher. SH is up 6 cents and near 14.96. SMH hit new highs near 464.0. BOH is near 60.83. CH is up 2 cents and near 6.44. WH is up 2 cents and near 7.49. KWH is up 2 cents and near 8.47. MWH is up 1 cent and near 9.10. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, sugar, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. Financial markets are trying to decide what is more important – reopening of China or forecast of global recession in 2023.
SH is near 15.00. More Argentina and China price premium is being added to soybean and soymeal futures. Some rains fell across central Argentina with BA, Cordoba and Santa Fe seeing .20-.90 inches of rain. More is forecasted for north Argentina over the next 72 hours. Still more rain is needed in the dry areas. Normal rains are forecasted for central Brazil. Conab est Brazil soybean acres up 5 pct and 16th consecutive year that Brazil soybean acres have increased. Brazil soybean crop is forecasted up 27 mmt vs ly. Argentina crop could be 46 mmt, down 6 from USDA but up 2 vs ly. USDA is expected to est US 2022/23 carryout at 238 mil bu today vs 220 in November.
CH also found some support due to the dry Argentina weather. Argentina corn crop saw unexpected rains overnight but more is needed. US corn export demand remains slow. Weekly exports will need to average 36 mil bu to reach USDA export goal. Most feel USDA should lower US export est 100-150 mil bu today and raise carryout same. WASDE is not expected to change US feed use or ethanol numbers. USDA is expected to est US 2022/23 carryout at 1,237 mil bu today vs 1,182 in November.
Wheat futures are struggling with a lack of new news. WASDE should increase Russia and Australia wheat crops and exports today. This should offset a drop in Argentina. WASDE should keep US supply and demand numbers unchanged from November. Russia cash wheat market is firming but is not yet enough to shift global trade from Russia. Egypt bought Russia wheat is their tender. Argentina wheat harvest is 42 pct done with yields down 32 pct from ly. Wheat futures are oversold but lower global demand and lower Russia prices limits new buying interest. US south plains remain dry.
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