Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are lower. Most commodities are lower. US Midwest and EU 2 week weather forecast is mostly warm and dry. SU is down 16 cents and near 14.06. SMU is near 407.7. BOU is near 61.56. CU is down 6 cents and near 6.30. WU is down 19 cents and near 8.37. KWU is down 17 cents and near 8.97. MWU is down 22 cents and near 9.41.
US stocks are lower before US CPI data and key Bank earnings. US Dollar is up 12 pct in 2022. Crude is lower. Renewed talk of inflation and recession is weighing on stocks, energies and grains. Copper the global economic indicator is making new 2 year low.
China soymeal buying slow with crush margins lower. 6 weeks since China bought US beans. Dalian soybean, palmoil and soyoil prices lower. Soymeal and corn higher. US soybean export to date down 10 pct vs ly. US crop rated down 1 at 62 pct G/E. USDA could lower US acres/crop/carryout today. US old crop and new crop sales record high.
Argentina inflation 80 pct. Import/export outlook uncertain. Acute diesel shortages.
US corn exports to date down 17 pct. Crop unch at 64 pct G/E. Crop 15 pct silking vs 25 ave. 2 week WCB and Delta forecast warm and dry. More crop vulnerable during pollination. EU corn crop pollinating with no rainfall and temps ranging from 88-100 degrees. USDA is expected to increase US corn acres/crop and carryout.
US wheat futures lower Monday in wide range. Lower overnight. Rumors Ukraine exports. Despite new Turkey and Russia talks most feel Ukraine will not demine ports. US wheat exports down 17 pct vs ly. WW harvest 63 pct. SW rated 70 pct G/E. US spring wheat crop 44 pct heading vs 81 ly. Key USDA number World wheat stocks. USDA will issue first US 2022/23 wheat supply and demand by class today. Importers adding coverage with large French vessel line up and increase German sales. EU and Russia wheat yields higher than expected but protein levels lower.
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