Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. July Oats are down 23 cents and near 3.99 and correcting an overbought tech picture. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher and waiting for this weeks US Consumer price index. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Meat futures were higher led by cattle.
SN is near 12.22. Some still feel any US Midwest summer weather problem and SN could rally to 13.00 gap. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. Conab est Brazil soybean crop at 147.6 mmt vs 146.5 mmt previous and USDA 154. They did lower harvested acres due to southern flooding but market reaction was negative. Heavy rains though continue in S Brazil.. Fact US did not yet impose tariffs on imported China used cooking oil weighed on soyoil futures. US April NOPA soybean crush is est near 183.0 mil bu vs 196.4 in March and 173.2 lly. Soyoil stocks are est at 1,882 mil lbs vs 1,851 in March and 1,957 in April, 2023.
CN is near 4.69. Dalian corn futures were lower. Weekly US ethanol production is est near last week level. Stocks could see future decline. Conab est corn crop at 111.6 mmt vs 110.9 in April, 131 8 ly and USDA 122. Near 15 mmt drop in South America supply could increase demand for US exports. Showers could slow east and south US corn plantings but west should see better planting weather. Market needs to decide if US crop yield will average above 180 to keep futures from rallying or if funds need to cover additional shorts.
WN is near 6.78. KWN is near 6.89. Wax off wax on. Wheat futures are trying to decide if WN needs to trade over 7.00 on Russia and EU winter wheat crop worries or if demand is soft enough to pull futures lower. One group est Russia crop at 85 mmt vs USDA 88. That is friendly futures. Some showers are forecasted for parts of S Russia next week before a ridge of high pressure reforms. It continues to rain in west EU. Some suggested US farmers increase cash sales near 7.37 WZ, 7.41 KWZ and 7.60 MWZ. Prices above those levels would suggest World exporters stocks to use ratio could be record low. US SRW areas may be too wet, HRW forecast may be to dry and HRS weather could be just right.
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