Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
New Month. US Fed day, Grains are lower. SH is down 5 cents and near 15.32. SMH is near 481.7. BOH is near 62.17. CH is down 4 cents and near 6.75. WH is down 6 cents and near 7.55. KWH is down 6 cents and near 8.72. MWH is down 3 cents and near 9.19. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, cocoa and sugar are lower. Copper, coffee, and cotton are higher.
Soybeans futures are lower. Argentina rains could be offering resistance. Central Brazil forecast is drier which should aid harvest. China increased domestic meal sales. There is talk China bought 2-3 Brazil Mar-Apr soybean cargoes. Soybean futures up to final Brazil crop and China import demand. Brazil farmer increased cash sales. Soymeal up to Argentina weather and their slow soybean crush pace. Argentina allocated $27 million to aid drought hit farmers, There is talk that combined corn, soybean and wheat losses could be 20 mmt. The aid would only be $1.35 per tonne. USDA Argentina Ag Attaché lowered the soybean crop to 36 mmt or down 9.5 mmt from USDA Jan estimate. Canada canola prices were up for 5th day and near 2 week high. Stats Canada should est Dec canola stocks near 11.7 mmt vs 8.8 ly. Dalian soymeal, palmoil and soyoil prices were lower. Soybean higher.
Corn futures are lower. Argentina rains could be offering resistance. CH tested 6.90 for 3rd time and failed. Corn futures up to weekly US ethanol data and weekly US export sales pace. Brazil export prices are below US and is equal to EU vs Ukraine feed wheat. Argentina allocated $27 million to aid drought hit farmers, There is talk that combined corn, soybean and wheat losses could be 20 mmt. The aid would only be $1.35 per tonne. Stats Canada should est Dec oat stocks near 3.6 mmt vs 1.8 ly. Dalian corn prices were lower.
WH made 4 week highs yesterday on fund short cover. KWH and MWH made new highs to 2023. US central Midwest is seeing freezing rain and upper Midwest remains cold. US south plains remains dry. US HRW export price is $40 higher than German. US SRW is $3 higher than French and $25 higher than Russia. Domestic EU wheat prices have dropped $60 since October due to cheaper Ukraine feed wheat import. E EU farmers are asking Brussels for new import quotas. Stats Canada is expected to estimate Dec all wheat stocks near 22.3 mmt vs 16.8 ly.
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