Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
New Month same song and dance. Grains are lower. SX is down 7 cents and near 14.15. SMZ is near 418.7. BOZ is near 65.85. CZ is down 6 cents and near 6.64. WZ is down 6 cents and near 8.24. KWZ is down 7 cents and near 9.05. MWZ is down 11 cents and near 9.18.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower and near $87. Crude oil futures have loss $20 since June. Gold, silver and copper are lower.
Soybeans are lower. Dalian soybeans, palmoil and soyoil were lower. Soymeal was higher. Slowing China economy could reduce their raw material imports including US soybeans. South America export prices are still a discount to US. No USDA export sales report this week. USDA did say there will be a report Sep 15. Talk of record US and 2023 South America soybean crops is negative to futures.
Corn futures and cash prices fighting strong domestic basis and demand as stocks decline versus slow export market. There will be no USDA export sales report this week. USDA did say there will be a reports Sep 15. Ukraine October corn export prices in near $264 versus US $322. China and S Korea are buying Ukraine corn. Still a lot of uncertainty about Ukraine exports after Mykolaev export grain silos were bombed. France corn harvest is starting in record early time. Crop est down 40 pct. Some concern about seed supply for next crop with seed production also down 40 pct. September US Midwest weather should be warm and dry.
Wheat futures are also lower. Most month end short covering may be done. Concern about global stagflation and inflation quickly turning to deflation could reduce global food demand. US wheat export prices are uncompetitive. US SRW export price is near $348 while Black Sea is near $315. Russia continues to lower export tax which is giving buyers some new confidence in buying wheat forward. Turkey raised passage cost through Boshuros pass from 80 cents to $4.
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