Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SH is down 3 cents and near 15.39. SMH is near 501.6. BOH is near 59.84. CH is down 3 cents and near 6.77. WH is down 7 cents and near 7.78. KWH is down 11 cents and near 8.97. MWH is down 7 cents and near 9.23.
Still no official word on if CFTC will release commit of traders report.
CH tested 6.83 before trading down to 6.77. Weekend Argentina rains were better than expected. Supply bears continue to look for lower long-term prices. Russia/Ukraine and UN will soon start negotiations to extend the Black Sea export corridor due to expire March 19. Over the weekend, Ukraine is trying to hold off Russia advance and is restoring the power grid. Ukraine loading of grain for export is continuing. Analyst still look for US 2022/23 corn carryout near 1,340 vs USDA 1,237 due to lower demand. Same group est US 2023 crop near 15,280 and carryout near 2,060.
KWH rallied to 9.11 before dropping to 8.97. Bears look for strong resistance near 8.00 nearby Chicago wheat and 9.20 KC. Most look for slight drop in US 2022/23 wheat exports and a carryout near 600 vs USDA 568. Same group looks for US 2023 wheat crop at 1,890 and carryout near 660. Over the weekend, Ukraine is trying to hold off Russia advance and is restoring the power grid. Ukraine loading of grain for export is continuing.
Concern about declining US and China relation offers resistance to beans. Argentina weekend rains were better than expected. MG Brazil soybean harvest is near 44 pct with Brazil farmers active sellers of the crop. Bears look for strong resistance near 15.50 nearby Chicago soybeans. Most look for slight drop in US 2022/23 exports and a carryout near 240 vs USDA 225. Same group looks for US 2023 soybean crop at 4,600 and carryout near 430. Dalian soymeal futures were higher vs lower palmoil and soybean prices.
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