Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. SH is up 4 cents and near 14.96. SMH is near 472.0. BOH is near 64.24. CH is unch and near 6.54. WH is up 3 cents and near 7.47. KWH is up 4 cents and near 8.36. MWH is up 2 cents and near 9.04. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude, gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are all higher. Friday’s wage data could suggest more dovish US Fed.
Corn futures are trading sharply unchanged. Concern about lower export and ethanol demand offers resistance. China reopening policy may be helping commodities. USDA report Jan 12. Average est for US 2022/23 carryout is 1,314 vs 1,257 previous. Range 1,181-1,404. Average trade est for Argentina corn is down 3 mmt to 52. One group est the crop closer to 49. Trade est Brazil near 126.3 vs USDA 126 and 116 ly.
Soybean futures are marginally higher. Soyoil is gaining on soymeal. China reopening may be offering support. Argentina is still dry. USDA report Jan 12. Average est for US 2022/23 carryout is 236 vs 220 previous. Range 205-289. Trade estimates Argentina soybean crop at 46.7 mmt vs USDA 49.5. One group lowered their est 10 mmt to 40 vs USDA 49.5 ly. Trade est Brazil 2023 crop near a record 152.3 mmt vs 127 ly. Brazil harvest has started. Protest in Brazil adds to uncertainty there.
Wheat futures are higher. Lower US Dollar may be offering support. China reopening may be offering support to commodities. Rising tide lifts all boats. US and N Africa dryness continues a concern. Normal 2023 north hemisphere weather is needed to increase global 2023 supply. WH resistance is 7.60. Some suggest US bakers to add to flour coverage. USDA report Jan 12. Average est for US 2022/23 carryout is 580 vs 571 previous. US 2023 winter wheat acres are est at 34.5 mil acres vs 33.3 ly. HRW 23.8 VS 23.0 ly. SRW 6.9 vs 6.6 ly.
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