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Mixed Grains As Funds Still Short


Grains are mixed. SK is up. CK is unch. WK is down. US stocks are lower .US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher and above $85. Cattle are lower and hogs higher due to concern about Avian flu in TX/KS dairy herd.


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SK is near 11.87. Some look for 11.75 SK support. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. Weekly US soybean exports were lower than expected. Season to date exports are down 19 pct vs ly. US Jan biodiesel production and use fell vs Dec due to poor weather. Combination of higher US supply and lower China demand for US soybeans could limit upside in soybean futures. Large Fund short, higher commodity prices led by gold, and unknown US summer weather could eventually push soybean futures higher. Initial target is 12.75.

CK is near 4.35. 2 pct of US corn crop is planted with wet weather forecast over next 10 days. Weekly US corn exports were higher than expected. Season to date exports are up 34 pct vs ly. Machines still not willing to cover shorts. Some feel dry Brazil 2nd crop weather and unknown US summer weather could push CN and CZ eventually higher. Initial target is 4.60. Fact farmers could increase sales higher and continued pricing competition for US corn exports could offer resistance.

WK is near 5.54. Funds are short wheat. Wetter US 2nd week forecast could be weighing on wheat futures. NOAA US 30 day forecas is wet east with Midwest temps warmer than normal. UAE Bank tightened Russia payment policy but Russia allowed more RF/Grain Flower vessles to ship. US exports to date are down 12 pct vs ly. USDA rated US 2024 winter wheat crop 56 pct G/E vs 28 ly. In SRW, MO is 77 and AR 59, In HRW, OK is 73 and KS is 48 and TX 44. In PNW white, WA is 51, OR 71. S Arabia bought 795 mt wheat for Jue-July, Mostly Black Sea. W EU is too wet and more rain is forecast. E EU and Black Sea is too dry.


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