Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is up 7 cents and near 15.28. SMH is near 489.6. BOH is near 60.04. CH is down 2 cents and near 6.77. WH is down 3 cents and near 7.47. KWH is up 1 cent and near 8.76. MWH is up 1 cent and near 9.18. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is marginally lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. Copper is lower.
Soybean futures are higher. Drier Argentina and S Brazil and may be helping soybean futures. One crop watcher estimates Argentina soybean crop at 38.0.0 mmt vs USDA 45.5. One analyst group estimates US 2022/23 soybean carryout at 190 due to higher exports. There is talk that China may release RSO and SBO reserves. Last week, China bought 30 Brazil soybean cargoes for Mar-Aug. Brazil soybean export basis is lower on increase farmer selling. Domestic China daily soymeal trade increased to 360 mt. Argentina Jan soymeal exports were 10 year low. Some estimate that US famers have sold 75-80 pct of 2022 crop.
Corn futures are lower. Dalian corn futures were lower. US season to date corn exports remain down 33 pct vs ly. One crop watcher estimates Argentina corn crop at 44.0 mmt vs USDA 52.0. One analyst group estimates US 2022/23 corn carryout at 1,183 mil bu due to higher exports. MG Brazil corn crop is 16 pct planted vs 32 average. Some estimate that US famers have sold 55-60 pct of 2022 crop. Domestic basis is trending lower. Tragic Turkey earthquake may have little impact on grain markets but Turkey Lira is record low.
Wheat futures are mixed. Trade estimates US 2022/23 wheat carryout at 576 mil bu vs USDA 567. USDA still est Russia wheat crop at 92.0 mmt vs 75.1 ly and most private estimates at 104.0. Will USDA increase Russia crop and exports? US south plains is dry. SE plains, E Midwest and lakes are seeing rains with above normal temps. US HRW export prices is the most expensive wheat in World. CCC is tendering for Ethiopia. Australia is selling feed wheat to Asia.
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