Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 11 cents and near 13.97. SMZ is near 409.0. BOZ is near 64.01. CZ is up 4 cents and near 6.73. WZ is up 7 cents and near 8.36. KWZ is up 9 cents and near 9.02. MWZ is up 5 cents and near 9.03.
Macro markets continue to push and pull grain futures. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher and near $84. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. Euro is back over US Dollar.
US rains are in east with west and plains dry. EU is getting rains but 2nd week turns drier. South America is dry.
Corn futures continue to trade near the 200 DMA. CONAB lowered 2022 corn crop 1.4 mmt to 113.3 vs USDA 116. French corn rated 43 pct G/E with 5 pct crop harvested. Weekly US ethanol production was up 2 pct, stocks down 2 pct. US farmer is not selling. Still no weekly US export sales. Some short covering is possible before next weeks USDA report. Trade est US 2022 corn crop at 14,088 mil bu vs USDA 14,359 and 2022/23 carryout at 1,217 vs USDA 1,388. Ukraine fob corn is near $262, Brazil, $275 and US $320.
Soybean futures are higher in front of next weeks USDA report. CONAB increased 2022 soybean crop 1.6 mmt to 125.6 vs USDA 126. China is reported to have bought 20 Argentina soybean cargoes this week. US farmer is not selling. Still no weekly US export sales. Some short covering is possible before next week’s USDA report. US Ag Attaché lowered China 2022/23 soybean imports to 96.5 mmt vs USDA 98.0 due to covid restrictions and lower economy. Trade est US 2022 soybean crop at 4,496 mil bu vs USDA 4,531 and 2022/23 carryout at 247 vs USDA 245. Argentina fob soybean is near $571, Brazil, $606 and US $592.Argentina soymeal is $453 vs US $592. Argentina soyoil $1,264 vs US $1,585.
Wheat futures are higher. Uncertainty over Black Sea export corridor, Ukraine farmers who can’t or won’t move their grain at current prices, ongoing projections of major winter Ukraine acreage losses, and the impact of low or absent fertilizer application offers support. Some freight operators who are reluctant to go to Ukraine because of the danger to crew and vessel, are now even more reluctant because of the potential increased risk of getting stuck in port for months if the corridor is shut. Trade est US 2022/23 wheat carryout at 618 mil bu vs USDA 610. More forecast of a record Russia wheat crop but export to date are well below USDA 42 mmt forecast.
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