Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is down 5 cents and near 13.32. SMN is near 420.5. BON is near 46.47. CN is down 4 cents and near 5.56. WN is down 9 cents and near 6.16. KWN is down 22 cents and near 8.62. MWN is down 16 cents and near 8.43. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is unch and near $72.
Soybeans are lower. Some of that last bulls liquidated longs after SN dropped below key support. Funds are long only 25,000 contracts. Soybean futures made highs last year on June 9. Good start to US spring weather and talk Ukraine corridor was extended 2 months weighed on EU rapeseed prices. BON also down after NOPA soyoil stocks were higher than expected. Brazil soybean export basis firming after harvest is done but Brazil soybean exports could continue into late July. SN is becoming oversold. Weekly US old crop export sales are est at 0-300 vs 62 last week. New crop 0-300 vs 50 last week. US soymeal sales are est at 50-400 mt vs 277 last week. Argentina has begun to offer soymeal at prices below US.
Corn is lower. China corn cancellation and reopening of Ukraine export corridor weighed on corn futures. Funds are short 143,000 contacts with CN oversold and near 18 month low. Corn futures made highs last year on May 17. Weekly US old crop export sales are est at -500-300 vs 257 last week. New crop 50-300 vs 83 last week. Brazil corn export basis is firm with export execution favoring soybeans. Dryness continues across most of Brazil safrina corn crop areas. US fob corn is near 259. Brazil July is 234. August 213.
Wheat futures are lower. KC is down another 22 cents on wetter forecast. Is it too little too late for crop? KC wheat crop tour estimated second day KS yield at lowest in 20 years and 27.5. 5 year average is near 44.7. Argentina is finally getting some rain. Australia forecast is drier but futures are lower and following lower World wheat prices. Russia continues to offer wheat near $250. US SRW is near 259. Weekly US export sales are est 50-100 mt old crop vs 26 last week. New crop 200-400 vs 333 last week. Wheat futures made highs last year on May 19.
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