Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SU is up 3 cents and near 13.63. SN went off the beard at 16.10. SMU is near 414.2. SMN went off the bears at contracts highs. BOU is near 56.97. BON went off the board at 2022 lows. CU is up 4 cents and near 6.09. WU is up 8 cents and near 8.03. KWU is up 3 cents and near 8.52. MWU is up 2 cents and near 9.13.
US stocks are higher. Crude is moderately higher. US Dollar is lower. Gold and copper are lower. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. China Q2 economy contracted to lowest level since Covid started. This continues to raise concern about their commodity and especially soybean import demand. Palmoil prices are still historically low due to lower Asian demand. In general, financial and commodity markets are still worried about slowdown in global economy due to inflation and supply chain challenges.
US soybean export commit is down 4 pct vs ly but new crop sales are record high. Brazil approved legislation favoring biofuel over fossil fuel for 20 years. US 2022/23 soybean outlook is tight due to lower acres. Q4 and Q1,2023 export and crush demand will be strong until South America 2023 harvest. 51.5 yield is a must or prices may need to trend higher.
Corn futures are higher. Hot west EU and dry EU weather may be supporting corn futures more than US weather. Argentina corn crop is 58 pct harvested. Remaining crop rated 16 pct G/E. Brazil Ag Minister said there will be no corn exports to China until 2023 harvest as they need to improve, disease, fungus and weed control? Matif corn futures are near 4 week highs on weather concerns and need for more 2022/23 imports. US rains this weekend favor WI, MI, IL, IN and KY. Elsewhere will be warm and dry.
Wheat is trying to find some better prices news. China buying US wheat failed to attract new buyers. WU/KWU are below pre Ukraine prices. Argentina wheat 91 pct planted with crop rated down 3 pct from last week and 18 pct G/E. Last year at this time the crop was rated 59 pct G/E. Sep-Dec Matif futures wheat spread at new highs. This due to lack of farmer selling. Russia also has a meeting today that could result in new policy that countries sending Ukraine war supplies could be legitimate targets. US wheat export prices are competitive to World buyers.
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