Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SK is up 5 cents and near 14.99. SMK is near 472.3. BOK is near 60.88. CK is up 5 cents and near 6.40. WK is up 6 cents and near 7.16. KWK is up 4 cents and near 8.21. MWK is up 3 cents and near 8.66. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, cocoa and sugar are lower. Coffee and cotton are higher.
Nearby corn futures found support from talk that China may have bought 1.5 mmt US corn and 300 mt US sorghum. Some feel the corn is to satisfy import licenses and not by either Cofco or Sino Grain. All on the heels of talk that there is yet no date for UN and Russia to extend the Ukraine export corridor. Russia is still saying they will not extend the deal without concessions. It may be up to China. If Xi no longer needs Ukraine corn Russia may not extend the deal. Brazil and Argentina are out of the export market. Weekly US corn export sales are est near 500-1,000 mt vs 823 last week. Congress is trying to extend the use of E15 across US Midwest. One group est Brazil corn crop at 131 mmt vs USDA 123.
Soybean futures found support near 14.77 SK and 465 SMK. Some feel lower Argentina crop could help demand for US soybeans and soymeal. There is talk that 500 mt of Argentina soybean export were switched to Brazil. One group est Brazil soybean crop at 154 mmt vs USDA 153. There remains concern that Argentina soybean crop could drop below 35 mmt vs USDA 41. Most feel Argentina will need to import SA soybean crush to keep at a normal level. Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 300-850 mt vs 544 last week. US SPR stocks are down 189 mil bbl (36 pct) vs ly and 285 mil bbl (43 pct ) from 2020 high. US EIA biofuel capacity showed 184 mil gal of renewable fuel production capacity in Dec. This lifted total capacity to 2,854 mil gal or up 258 pct from Dec,2021. Jan-Dec consumption was up 20 pct. Future demand for Soyoil feedstock is expected to increase. Weekly US corn export sales are est near 500-1,000 mt vs 823 last week.
Wheat futures finally found some support from a turnaround in corn prices. Wheat was also oversold with Managed funds short 100,000 contracts. There was talk that there is a little concern about EU dryness and fact that in El Nino years, Australia tends to have a below average wheat crop. Russia is still saying they will not extend the Ukraine corridor deal without concessions. US south plains remains dry. April weather key. Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 150-600 mt vs 823 last week.
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