Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher led by soybeans and soymeal. SH is up 9 cents and near 14.94. SMH is near 473.4. BOH is near 62.80. CH is up 3 cents and near 6.58. WH is unch and near 7.32. KWH is unch and near 8.11. MWH is unch and near 8.93. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude, gold, silver, copper, sugar and cotton are higher. Coffee and cocoa are lower. US CPI Thursday. US weekly ethanol data today. US weekly export sales Thursday. USDA report Thursday. CBOT closed Monday. World Bank lowered World 2023 economic growth from 3.0 pct in Jan to 1.7.
CH is near 6.60. Weekly US ethanol data today. Stocks up? Weekly US export sales Thursday. Argentina dry for 7 days. Rain in 10-15. EU model dry. 50 pct Argentina corn crop is pollinating. Brazil corn exports slowing. USDA report Jan 12. Average est for US 2022/23 carryout is 1,314 vs 1,257 previous. Range 1,181-1,404. Average trade est for Argentina corn is down 3 mmt to 52. One group est the crop closer to 49. Trade est Brazil near 126.3 vs USDA 126 and 116 ly.
Soybean futures are higher. Concern about Argentina soybean crop supportive. Dalian soybean and soymeal trade were higher. Palmoil and soyoil were lower. USDA report Jan 12. Average est for US 2022/23 carryout is 236 vs 220 previous. Range 205-289. Trade estimates Argentina soybean crop at 46.7 mmt vs USDA 49.5. One group lowered their est 10 mmt to 40. Trade est Brazil 2023 crop near a record 152.3 mmt vs 127 ly. Brazil harvest has started.
Wheat futures are mixed. Higher US Dollar may be offering resistance. US and N Africa dryness continues a concern. Some US south plains rains offering resistance to KC. Lower Russia wheat prices offers resistance. USDA report Jan 12. Average est for US 2022/23 carryout is 580 vs 571 previous. US 2023 winter wheat acres are est at 34.5 mil acres vs 33.3 ly. HRW 23.8 VS 23.0 ly. SRW 6.9 vs 6.6 ly.
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