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Grains Mixed Start on Report Day


USDA report day. Grains are mixed. SU is up. CU is up. WU is down. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa and cotton are higher. NATO will continue to support Ukraine with weapons but reluctant to invite them into NATO. US CPI Wednesday. OPEC meeting Thursday.

Soybeans are higher before todays USDA monthly supply and demand report. Trade est yield near 51.4. Average trade guess for US 2023/24 soybean carryout is 200 mil bu vs 350 in June. World 2023/24 soybean carryout could remains near 121 mmt vs 123 in June and 101 this year. Brazil soybean harvest near 66 pct which could reduce new hedge pressure. US WCB weather looks drier. No heat. Dalian soybeans were higher; meal, soyoil and palmoil lower.

Corn futures are higher. Corn could see some short covering before todays USDA monthly supply and demand report. Trade est yield near 176.6. Average trade guess for US 2022/23 corn carryout is 1,420 mil bu vs 1,452 in June. Average trade guess for US 2023/24 corn carryout is 2,260 mil bu vs 2,257 in June. USDA est China corn crop at 280 mmt with imports near 23. Some feel fact 30 pct of crop is dry could support eventually increase imports.

Wheat is mixed to lower. Some focus on lower Canada, China and Russia crops may be offering support. Russia wheat prices are firming. New concern about French wheat quality also offers support. KWU-WU spread near +209 and could test May higher near Trade est US 2023 wheat crop near 1,683 mil bu vs 1,665 in June. Winter wheat harvest is 46 done vs 59 ave. Trade first est of US spring wheat crop is at 477 mil vs 446 ly. Durum 60 vs 64 ly. US HRS crop was rated dropped to 47 pct G/E vs 48 last week. US wheat exports are down 21 pct vs ly.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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