Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Some were worried sun might not come up today after USDA bearish report but it did and grains are mixed. SU is up 13 cents and near 13.69. SMU is near 406.2. BOU is near 62.49. CU is unch and near 4.75. CN is near 5.55. WU is down 3 cents and near 6.29. KWU is down 3 cents and near 8.00. MWU is up 2 cents and near 8.55. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is mixed and near $75. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and cotton are higher. US CPI data suggest Fed could slow new interest rate hikes.
Soybean futures are higher. Some feel that a drier US Midwest trend could support futures despite USDA estimating record US yield. This despite ratings 4th lowest ever. China June imports were 10.3 mmt vs 8.5 ly. Will China need to buy US after Brazil 2023 harvest and before 2024 harvest? USDA estimates SA 2023/24 soybean crops up 31 mmt. USDA dropped US soybean exports 25 mil bu and lowered new crop 50. This left 2023/24 carryout down only 50 mil bu and 100 mil above average trade est. USDA did not change US biodiesel use but did raise carryout due to higher imports and lower exports. Weekly old crop export sales est at 0-300 mt vs 187 last week. New crop 100-600 vs 592 last week.
Sep corn futures dropped to lowest level since Dec, 2020. USDA did drop acres but dropped yield only 4 bpa. USDA 2023/24 carryout of 2,262 suggest $4.00 futures. USDA dropped Argentina corn 1 mmt but raised Brazil 1 mmt and new record. China corn data was left unchanged despite warm and dry weather over 30 pct of acres. Ukraine corn exports were increased 1 mmt to 28. New crop up .5 to 19.5. Weekly old crop export sales est at 50-400 mt vs 251 last week. New crop 50-400 vs 418 last week. World 2023/24 end stocks est at 314.1 mmt vs 196.3 this year.
Wheat futures dropped following lower corn and soybean prices and USDA higher wheat crop estimate. US 2023 HRW crop is up 9 pct, SRW up 25 pct, HRS down 1 pct, Durum down 16 pct. USDA dropped Canada crop 2 mmt, Argentina down 2 mmt, EU and Russia crops were dropped total 3.5 mmt. Weekly export sales are est at 50-550 mt vs 405 last week. World 2022/23 end stocks est at 269.3 mmt vs 266.6 previous. World 2023/24 end stocks est at 266.5 mmt vs 270.7 previous.
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