Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. SH is up 3 cents and near 14.67. SMH is near 449.2. BOH is near 63.28. CH is up 1 cent and near 6.48. WH is unch and near 7.48. KWH is up 4 cents and near 8.48. MWH is up 5 cents and near 9.13. Crude, metals and softs are up on talk China will try to stimulates its economy. US Dollar is lower after Japan Central Bank raised rates.
Argentina forecast is a little drier than thought earlier. There are chances of showers but may not be drought breaking. One crop watcher estimates Brazil soybean crop at 151.0 mmt vs USDA 152.0. They estimate Argentina near down 2 mmt to 45.0 vs USDA 49.5. Dalian soybeans, soymeal and soyoil prices were lower. China soybean crush margins are sliding lower.
US HRW wheat is up due to upcoming cold and the overnight trade is up 5 in KC. The surprise interest rate move from the BOJ has weakened the US dollar this morning which is also adding support. The move raises the concern for a world-wide recession which is being compounded by the ongoing surge in Covid cases in China. Wheat acres enrolled in USDA insurance programs showed a 1.6 million increase over last year, which is worth about 70 mil bu production. Overall however, fresh news is limited.
Concern is building for a further escalation of the war as Putin is reportedly trying to get Belarus to open up a second front on Ukraine, whilst at the same time, kamikaze drones continue to hit Kyiv and other cities. Argentina forecast is a little drier than thought earlier. There are chances of showers but may not be drought breaking. One crop watcher estimates Brazil corn crop at 125.5 mmt vs USDA 152.0. They estimate Argentina near 47.0 vs USDA 55.0. Dalian corn prices were lower. Weekly US season to date exports are down 30 pct vs last year.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
