Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is up 12 cents and near 13.84. SMN is near 397.5. BON is near 54.84. CN is up 2 cents and near 6.19. WN is down 4 cents and near 6.29. KWN is down 8 cents and near 7.89. MWN is down 8 cents and near 8.06. US CPI today. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, cocoa and cotton are higher. China talking about stimulating their economy.
SN is unch. USDA dropped US crop rating 3 pct to 59 pct G/E. 50 pct of US soybean area is in drought. Worse is NE and MO. Some est US soybean yield at 51.5 vs USDA 52.0. Season to date US soybean exports are 48.8 mmt vs 50.5 ly. USDA goal is 54.4 vs 58.7 ly. Brazil June soybean exports look to be record high. Matif rapeseed are higher due to dry EU weather. So far India monsoon is under performing. Talk of higher soyoil demand is helping soybean futures. US domestic soybean basis is firm.
CN is unch. USDA dropped US crop rating 3 pct to 61 pct G/E. Highest rated crops are in MN, ND, WI, TN and OH. Lowest rated crops are in IN, IL, MI, MO, NE and SD. Some est US corn yield at 178.0 vs USDA 181.5. There remains no hot temps in US Midwest forecast. 5.50 is strong CZ resistance. Season to date US corn exports are 31.1 mmt vs 45.0 ly. USDA goal is 43.8 vs 62.8 ly. World trade is est near 176.5 mmt vs 206.5 ly. USDA est World 2023/24 corn trade near 197.7.
Wheat futures are lower. US wheat exports to date are down 50 pct vs ly. Lower Russia prices and higher export supply offers resistance to US futures. There is talk Russia could drop floor price to $230. US SRW is $251. USDA increased US winter wheat crop rating to 38 pct G/E vs 31 ly. 8 pct of crop is harvested vs 9 ave. Rains are slowing HRW harvest. US dropped US spring wheat rating 4 pct to 60 G/E. Last year was 54. Matif futures are higher and testing 8 month down trend line of resistance. Russia spring wheat is dry. S Russia is too wet. Argentina is dry. Only 20 pct wheat crop is planted vs 36 ave. Argentina farmers facing record inflation, currency depreciation and dry weather.
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