Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up 5 cent and near 13.89. SMZ is near 414.2. BOZ is near 61.71. CZ is down 1 cent and near 6.70. WZ is up 3 cents and near 8.48. KWZ is up 4 cents and near 9.05. MWZ is up 8 cents and near 9.08.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. EU to raise interest rates today 75 basis points. Crude is lower and near $81. 7 western World countries capping Russia oil price. Gold, silver, copper and coffee are higher. Cocoa is lower.
Wheat futures ae higher. Putin’s speech suggesting that Ukraine grains exports are not going to poor African and Middle east countries is offering support to wheat futures. Only 16 pct of Ukraine grain exports are going to EU and some of that was rerouted to Africa. So far, 70 pct of shipments has been corn. Ukraine wheat exports are slow and there is talk that War is limiting wheat flow to port elevators. 30 pct of Ukraine grain acres are under Russia control. Wheat demand has been slowed by drop in global economy and reduced consumer disposable income. Steep drop in Crude oil underscores drop in consumer demand.
Soybean futures are mixed with soybean and soyoil slightly higher but soyoil futures continue to trade lower. Dalian soybean, soyoil and palmoil futures are lower. Asian vegoil demand is lower and South America soymeal and soyoil prices are a discount to US. Argentina new soy peso price increased farmer selling and lowered Argentina soybean export prices. China took advantage of lower prices and bought 10 Argentina soybean cargoes. USDA China Ag Attaché lowered the estimate of pork imports due to lower domestic prices. Trade est US 2022 soybean crop at 4,496 mil bu vs USDA 4,531. Range was 4,441 to 4,568. Yield 51.5 vs USDA 51.9. Harvested acres 87.3 vs USDA 87.2. Canada canola futures are lower despite July 31 canola stocks lowest in 9 years.
Corn futures are slightly lower. Corn rallied on Wednesday on talk of lower US 2022 corn crop, declining US pipeline supplies which is pushing basis higher and talk Russia may reevaluate the Ukraine grain export corridor deal. Corn futures backed off from session high on concern about demand. One US retailer announced yoy sales will drop. They will reduce new orders and will try to draw down existing inventories and blame inflation on reduced consumer spending. Ukraine has dropped corn export price even further to try to increase sales before any change in the export corridor deal. France is reporting bird flu outbreak that is killing seabirds. This is raising concern about the flu spreading to poultry. US 5 day rains will be in IA, WI and N IL and SE. NWS 8-14 day forecast calls for normal rains north and below south and above normal temps. Trade est US 2022 corn crop at 14,088 mil bu vs USDA 14,359. Range was 13,895 to 14,307. Yield 172.5 vs USDA 175.4. Harvested acres 81.7 vs USDA 81.4.
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