Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is up 13 cents and near 15.02. SMH is near 452.6. BOH is near 66.32. CH is unch and near 6.74. WH is unch and near 7.74. KWH is down 1 cent and near 8.78. MWH is down 1 cent and near 9.31. US stocks are higher. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, copper are lower. China lifting inbound travelers quarantine restrictions offers support to commodities. US Dollar is slightly higher.
Soybeans are higher on new technical buying above 15.00 SH. China dropping last covid restriction may be helping soybeans. On Tuesday, soybeans tried to rally on the news but was met with increase US and Brazil farmer selling. Season to date US soybean exports are down 7 percent from last year. Brazil soybean export price is 100 cents below US. Brazil soybean new crop supplies will be available in 30 days. Argentina crop rating dropped to 12 pct G/E vs 73 ly. One crop watchers lowered his est of Argentina crop to 43.0 mmt vs USDA 49.6. He has Brazil a record 151.0 vs 127.0 ly. BOH has rallied oil share to 1 month high and board crush to highest since mid-November.
Corn rallied to 7 week high on concerns about Argentina and S Brazil crop. Brazil will soon be out of old crop corn export supplies. Japan finally bought some US corn. Ukraine corn exports continues but crop estimates are dropping to 22.0 mmt vs USDA 27.0 with 30-35 pct of crop still in fields. Season to date US corn exports are 28 pct below last year. US corn export basis is firm on China buying talk. US farmer sold old crop cash near 7.00. Argentina corn rated 15 pct G/E versus 76 last year. One crop watcher lowered his est of Argentina crop to 46.0 mmt vs USDA 55.0. He has Brazil a record 126.0 vs 116.0 ly. Brazil corn export price is just 25-30 cents below US. Argentina corn export price just 10 cents below US. 2023 and 2024 Matif corn is higher on talk of lower EU and Ukraine 2023 acres.
Wheat futures tried to rally but continues to find strong overhead resistance from lower Russia prices. Putin signed law banning oil sales to nations that adopted price cap. This includes Group of 7 and Australia. Most were already reducing Russia imports. China continues to buy Russia oil. Egypt bought only 80 mt of Russia wheat in their tender. Purchase was financed by World Bank. Most feel cold US weather may have not stressed US HRW crop. US south plains though are still dry. Argentina wheat harvest is 78 pct done with domestic millers still short. Matif wheat was higher on talk of sales to China and slow farmer selling. There are 99 vessels waiting to be inspected in Turkey of which 27 are loaded and outbound.
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