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Grains Marginally Higher on Export Sales Day

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are marginally higher before today’s US export sales and Fridays USDA report. SU is up 6 cents and near 15.15. SMU is near 456.7. BOU is near 67.68. CU is up 3 cents and near 6.24. WU is up 7 cents and near 8.07. KWU is up 6 cents and near 8.78. MWU is up 5 cents and near 9.12.

US stocks are higher and US Dollar is lower post US CPI number. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, coffee and sugar are lower. Copper, cocoa and cotton are  higher.

Corn futures are higher on continue talk of lower EU crop and higher imports and higher Crude. There is also talk of USDA lowering US 2002 corn yield on Friday. Warm and dry conditions will continue across US WCB/plains for another 10 days. US ECB weather forecast remains normal. 2ND week US Midwest weather looks normal. Matif corn futures are at 7 week high and over wheat prices. Dalian corn at 4 week high. Weekly US corn exports est at 0-300 old crop and 100-600 new crop.

Nearby soybean futures are higher. SU trying to recover from Wednesdays late US weather related selloff. LTD for August contracts with SQ 180 over SU, SMQ 66 over SMU, and BOQ up 3 cents over BOU. Futures soyoil share up to 43 but below summer high near 51.  Strong US cash crush margins and declining soybean supplies may be supporting soybean futures. There is also talk US crushers have increased soymeal basis. China imports of US soybeans are still unknown. Some feel USDA could slightly drop US soybean yield on Friday but could offset that with lower exports. August is key month for US soybean crop. US soybean crop rating is now below last year. Crop ratings are lower in NE, TN, OH, and KY. Highest IL, IA and WI. Weekly US soybean exports est at -100/200 old crop and 300-700 new.

Wheat futures are higher. Wheat futures though are still are down to pre Ukraine war lows. World importer demand is higher. Matif wheat futures are higher. EU Millers are looking for wheat with farmers not selling. USDA has a big question concerning World wheat trade matrix to answer on Friday. Some could see higher Russia, Ukraine and Australia exports vs lower India and Argentina. Trade will need to watch Russia and US SW weather. Current dry trend raises concern over 2023 winter wheat seeding planting conditions. WU is now trading over the 20 day moving average. Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 200-600 mt.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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