Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. USDA report Tuesday. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Coffee is higher. Commodity price volatility is up amid Trump uncertainty. Grains could see pressure before this weeks Trump reciprocal tariffs. Trump expected to announce today 25 pct tariif on steel and aluminum imports.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.47. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil were higher. Brazil soybean crop est are now above 175 mmt. MG Brazil harvest is advancing. Argentina continues to see needed rains. Slowdown in new US soybean export sales offers resistance. US soymeal export sales are record high which is helping reduce US supply. US soybean crush is expected to slow. US soyoil futures are subject to US policy. India weather remains warm and dry. Trade est US 2024/25 soybean carryout at 374 vs USDA 380.
CORN
CH is near 4.85. Dalian corn futures were higher. CH rallied from 4.72 but was unable to push above 5.00. Funds remain large spec longs. Slow planting of Brazil safrina crop raised concern crop could drop below 125 mmt. C Brazil corn planting is now advancing. Argentina continues to see needed rains. Ukraine est soil moisture levels are lowest in 7 years. US Midwest is forecasted to see 2 winter events, one mid week and another this weekend. Trade est US 2024/25 corn carryout at 1,526 vs USDA 1,540.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.79. KWH is near 6.01. MWH is near 6.27. World 2025 weather uncertainty could be offering support. Matif wheat futures have rallied due to concern about west EU crop and reluctant farmer selling. Ukraine and Russia weather is dry. Russia temps turn colder next week. US plains are dry with colder temps newt week. India is warm and dry. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 799 vs USDA 798.
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