Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SU is down 1 cent and near 14.60. Overnight high was 14.77. SMU is near 450.0. BOU is near 62.93. CU is down 3 cents and near 5.99. Overnight high was 6.08. WU is down 5 cents and near 7.76. Overnight high was 7.96. KWU is down 5 cents and near 8.55. Overnight high was 8.77. MWU is down 1 cent and near 8.92. Overnight high was 9.06.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Dec Crude is mixed near $85. Crude oil is down 9 pct this week. Gold, silver and cocoa are lower. Copper, sugar and cotton are higher.
UN July World food price index dopped 8 pct and largest monthly drop since Oct 2008. Index is still 13 pct above July 2021. Cereal Index is down 11 pct, wheat down 15 pct. Wheat index still 25 pc from July, 2021. Vegoil is down 25 pct and a 10 month low.
Soybean futures are slightly lower and off the overnight highs. Talk that China was buying US soybeans rallied SU to an overnight high of 14.77. New China sanctions against US Speaker of House, continues military drills around Taiwan, and China canceling meetings with US on climate change adds some concern about China buying US commodities. US soybean export commit is down 4 pct vs ly. Most analyst estimating USDA August US soybean yield near USDA 51.5. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil were higher. Soyoil lower.
Corn futures are lower and off session high near 6.08. US Midwest weather is dry and warm this weekend. Rains next week in north and east. West will be dry. EU model is more normal than GFS. EU will be warm and dry. Some still arguing that US/EU corn crops could be down 25 mmt or 980 mil bu. US export commit is down and below USDA 2,450 goal. Matif corn was higher. France corn crop rating dropped to 63 pct G/E vs 90 ly. 3 more Ukraine corn vessels totaling 58 mt are expected to be shipped today. There is talk of more ready to ship but without insurance.
Wheat futures are lower and Chicago is off overnight high near 7.96. US export sales remain low despite fact US HRW prices are below French. Russia is lowering their wheat export prices. There are still issues about Russia wheat exports including logistics, floating export tax and freight surcharge for new demand. India is considering dropping 40 pct wheat import duty. Domestic India wheat price is up 40 pct in 2 weeks at $330 and record high. This could limit exports. Matif wheat futures were higher on lack of Farmer selling.
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