Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SU is down 17 cents and near 13.31. SMU is near 406.6. BOU is near 57.24. CU is down 6 cents and near 5.86. WU is down 4 cents and near 8.15. KWU is down 3 cents and near 8.67. MWU is down 6 cents and near 9.18.
US stocks are lower. Crude is sharply lower. US Dollar is mixed. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are all lower. Putin is threatening to expand Ukraine war, ECB to raise interest rates today for first time in 11 years, talk that US will also raise rates, Italy PM resigned, new UK PM elections adding to EU political uncertainty and US new housing starts negative US economy.
US 2nd week weather forecast is cooler and wetter. Return to warm and dry weather in August could raise question about US corn and soybean crop yields. Some relief in west EU with scattered shower. Temps still above normal. Hot and dry weather moves east into east EU and Ukraine and Russia.
Soybean futures continues to trade lower and near next support at 13.25 SU. Even though 2 cargos were announced sold to China, some are beginning to doubt USDA est of US soybean exports. Weekly US soybean sales are est at -200/200 old crop vs -362 last week and 0-500 new crop vs 114 last week. Favorable US Midwest weather also limits ne Managed fund buying. Dalian soymeal, palmoil, and soyoil prices were lower. Soybeans higher.
Corn futures are also lower despite strong domestic basis. Weekly US soybean sales are est at -100/200 old crop vs 59 last week and 100-500 new crop vs 348 last week. Favorable US Midwest weather also limits ne Managed fund buying. Dalian corn futures were lower. Matif corn futures has been trending higher due to warm and dry EU weather. Weekly US ethanol production was higher than last weeks shortened week.
Wheat futures are lower. Lower energy prices after Russia reopened the flow of gas into the Nord Stream pipeline weighing on commodity prices including wheat. Most commodity markets are lower on worries over global food and fuel demand. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 300-850 mt vs 1,017 last week. Egypt bought 640 mt from France Russian and EU origin.
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