Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SH is down 12 cents and near 14.76. SMH is near 466.8. BOH is near 62.94. CH is down 1 cent and near 6.51. WH is down 13 cents and near 7.27. KWH is down 17 cents and near 8.11. MWH is down 6 cents and near 8.95. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude, gold, sugar are higher. Silver, copper, coffee, cocoa and cotton are lower. USDA report Thursday. CBOT closed Monday.
Corn is near 6.50. Concern about lower export and ethanol demand offers resistance. US season to date exports are down 27 pct vs ly. USDA report Jan 12. Average est for US 2022/23 carryout is 1,314 vs 1,257 previous. Range 1,181-1,404. Average trade est for Argentina corn is down 3 mmt to 52. One group est the crop closer to 49. Trade est Brazil near 126.3 vs USDA 126 and 116 ly.
Soybean futures are lower. Dalian soybean and soyoil trade was lower. Argentina 7 day forecast is dry. 2nd week has rain in the forecast. US season to date exports are down 7 pct vs ly. USDA report Jan 12. Average est for US 2022/23 carryout is 236 vs 220 previous. Range 205-289. Trade estimates Argentina soybean crop at 46.7 mmt vs USDA 49.5. One group lowered their est 10 mmt to 40. Trade est Brazil 2023 crop near a record 152.3 mmt vs 127 ly. Brazil harvest has started.
Wheat futures are lower. Higher US Dollar may be offering resistance. US and N Africa dryness continues a concern. WH support is 7.20. Lower Russia wheat prices offers resistance. US season to date exports are down 3 pct vs ly. USDA report Jan 12. Average est for US 2022/23 carryout is 580 vs 571 previous. US 2023 winter wheat acres are est at 34.5 mil acres vs 33.3 ly. HRW 23.8 VS 23.0 ly. SRW 6.9 vs 6.6 ly.
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