Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SU is down 8 cents and near 14.23. SMU is near 436.8. BOU is near 62.59. CU is down 6 cents and near 6.00. WU is down 17 cents and near 7.82. KWU is down 16 cents and near 8.50. MWU is down 18 cents and near 8.79.
U.S. stock futures and global markets slipped lower Tuesday on fears that US House Speaker Pelosi’s planned visit to Taiwan this AM could heighten tensions between Beijing and Washington and add geopolitical risk to investors already muted outlook.
N US Plains and WCB will remain dry this week with temps above normal. These areas will dry down with development likely slowing. Heat stress will become a concern. C and ECB will see a good mix of rain and sunshine this week. Flooding in EC MO, SW IL and E KY was severe with many areas received 6.00 to 12.00 inches of rain over 24 hours.
USDA rated US corn crop 61 pct G/E vs 60 expected and 61 last week. Higher IL, IN and KY offset drops in NE, IA and TX. Some est that 24 pct of US corn acres are below trend yield (NE) , 22 pct near trend ( IN, MN, MO, OH) and 44 pct above (IL, IA, MI, ND,SD and WI). This suggest a yield near 174 vs USDA 177. Talk of increase Ukraine corn exports is also weighing on corn futures.
USDA rated US soybean crop 60 pct G/E vs 58 expected and 59 last week. Some est that 9 pct of US soybean acres are below trend yield, 54 pct near trend ( IN, MI, MN, MO, NE, OH, ND, SD) and 32 pct above ( AR, IL, IA, and WI). This suggest a yield near 50.5 vs USDA 51.5. Fear of increase tension between US and China is weighing on soybean futures. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower.
USDA rated US spring wheat crop 70 pct G/E vs 67 expected and 68 last week. US winter wheat harvest id 82 pct done. Talk of increase Ukraine grain exports is weighing on wheat futures. Talk of US Fed Increasing rates at the expense of a depression is also weighing on grains.
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