Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is near 15.10. SU is down 16 cents and near 13.72. SX is near 13.62. SMU is near 429.8. BOU is near 53.00. CN is near 6.68. CU is down 4 cents and near 6.19. CZ is near 6.25. WU is down 25cents and near 7.42. KWU is down 4 cents and near 8.67. MWU is down 2 cents and near 8.79. US stocks are lower. US dollar is mixed. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower. China is on holiday. Fed Chairman talking about more rate hikes. Norway hikes rates.
Soyoil futures continues lower on disappointing EPA renewable biofuel mandate. Soybean futures are taking a breather from vertical rally. Nearby US Midwest weather warm and dry. EU 10 day map dry in IL, E IA and W IN. Rain in SD, MN, Delta and SE. GFS Midwest rain in 10-14. Brazil export price below US. Brazil farmer heavy seller of beans. China in on holiday but palmoil is lower following US soyoil futures. US export sales delayed until Friday but should show new sales below pace to reach USDA goal. India monsoon remains disappointing.
Corn futures are taking a breather from vertical rally. Nearby US Midwest weather warm and dry. EU 10 day map dry in IL, E IA and W IN. Rain in SD, MN, Delta and SE. GFS Midwest rain in 10-14. Brazil export price below US. US export sales delayed until Friday but should show new sales below pace to reach USDA goal. Taiwan bought Brazil corn. Ukraine could see needed rains. Some talking about USDA in 2012 dropped US corn yield 20 bpa from June to July. Some fear US yield could now be below 170 and US crop down 1,000 mil bu from USDA 15,265.
Wheat futures are down only slightly. Wheat futures a follower to corn. Russia export prices still lower than US and EU. India reporting a wheat crop near 101-103 mmt versus government number of 112.7 and USDA 113.5. USDA just raised crop 3.5 mmt. Lower estimate suggest India could be net importer of wheat. There are rumors India may be asking Russia for export prices. Lower US stocks, higher corn prices questions need for US feed wheat. There is talk recent weather is helping SW US corn production.
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