Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mostly lower. SH is down 2 cents and near 15.11. SMH is near 457.9 BOH is near 65.12. CH is down 2 cents and near 6.80. WH is down 9 cents and near 7.76. KWH is down 11 cents and near 8.71. MWH is down 11 cents and near 9.23. US stocks are higher. Crude is lower. Gold, copper, coffee, cocoa are lower. China lifting import restrictions on chilled and frozen foods offers support. US Dollar is lower. US weekly export sales are delayed until Friday.
Soybean futures are slightly lower. Soyoil is gaining on soymeal. Weekly US export sales report is delayed until Friday. Trade will be watching to see if sales continue to slow. COFCO and Sino Grain announced a joint venture to oversee China reserves. Argentina and S Brazil weather remains dry. Some rain in NE Argentina. Rest of Brazil weather is normal. Trade still talking about record Brazil corn and soybean crop but lower Argentina. Late planted Argentina crops could help if weather changes and crop go through yield determine period under favorable conditions. But current dryness could lower final planted acres. Next week’s Argentina weather key with demand bears looking for a 2023 top in prices soon.
Dry Argentina and S Brazil weather has triggered new speculative buying above key resistance. Increase US and Brazil farmer selling offers important resistance. Talk of declining South America corn export supplies could be supportive to new US corn export demand and prices. US corn basis are firm on talk of increase China interest. Crude is lower on profit taking near $80. US export sales delayed until Friday. Trade will be watching for signs of increase demand for US corn. Lower US gas prices could help increase demand for ethanol versus increase in EV cars lowering demand long-term.
Wheat futures are lower after Egypt bought 200 mt wheat near $314 and below World 11.5 pct wheat prices. Trade will be watching potential change in US weather. For now, much of Midwest and Delta could see rains. US south plains remain dry. Some concern about slowing Black Sea grain export pace. While vessel inspections remain slow, Black Sea vessel nomination continue despite lower insurance offered after Jan 1. Black Sea trade may be slowed Friday to Jan 10 due to Orthodox Christmas.
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