Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SU is down 15 cents and near 13.81. SMU is near 406.6. BOU is near 61.12. CU is down 12 cents and near 6.00. WU is down 5 cents and near 8.07. KWU is down 5 cents and near 8.69. MWU is down 6 cents and near 9.32.
US stocks are higher. Crude is lower. US Dollar is sharply lower. Silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
US 7 day weather forecast is warm and dry. Position of a ridge in 2 week is yet to be determined but rainfall looks less than normal. EU is hot and dry. Some showers in C EU. Argentina is dry with some forecast dryness through end of 2022.
China was rumored to buy 6-8 Brazil cargoes for Feb-Mar. There is new concern about China demand for US soybeans, China was est to buy 50 mmt of US soybeans Aug-Jan. so far this is not happening. 250 million Chinese are in lockdown or 17 pct of their economy. China real estate is in financial trouble, some Banks are blocking withdraws and record 19 pct of youth are unemployed.
US soybean crop was rated down 1 pct and 61 pct G/E. Last year was 60. Best crops on IA, IL and AR. Lowest crops is OH, TN, KS and NE. 21 pct of crop yield is below trend, 42 pct trend and 32 pct above trend. Lower Real and higher futures increase Brazil farmer selling. Argentina farmer selling remains low due to inflation concerns. Indonesia is delaying B35 blend. Dalian soybean, soyoil and palmoil prices were lower. Soyoil was higher.
US corn crop was rated unch from last week and 64 pct G/E. Last year was 65. Best crops on IA, IL, ND, SD, and WI Lowest crops is OH, TN, and NE. 23 pct of crop yield is below trend, 24 pct trend and 44 pct above trend. More concern about EU corn crop and Ukraine exports. Argentina is dry with corn plantings starting mid-September
Overnight wheat futures were unable to find new buying after Monday’s gains. GASC is tendering for wheat with buyers limited to US, Canada, Australia, Argentina and Brazil. Australia and Argentina may be out of consideration. US SRW is cheapest but lack elevation capacity. US winter wheat harvest is 70 pct done. US spring wheat is rated 71 pct G/E vs 11 ly. EU wheat harvest is 50 pct vs 3 ly.
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