Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SH is down 10 cents and near 14.96. SMH is near 458/8. BOH is near 61.64. CH is down 3 cents and near 6.73. WH is down 4 cents and near 7.37. KWH is near 8.49. MWH is near 9.12. US stocks are choppy and lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Copper is higher.
SH is near 14.96. Argentina received better weekend rains than expected. Last week managed funds bought 34,000 more soybeans and 9,000 more soymeal that could now have a loss. Better Argentina weather, talk of record Brazil 2023 crop and lower US Dec soybean crush than expected is weighing on futures. Bears now point to a test of 14.00 SH.
CH is near 6.73. Argentina received better weekend rains than expected. Last week managed funds bought 43,000 more corn that could now have a loss. Better Argentina weather, talk lower Ukraine export prices and lower ethanol and US export demand is weighing on futures. Bears now point to a test of 6.50 CH. Flip from La Nina to neutral El Nino could suggest trend or above 2023 US corn yields.
WH is near 7.37. There was better than expected weekend snow in W KS. World dry 2023 wheat areas in US and E EU are in decline. Higher US 2023 WW acres could be offset by lower Black Sea. Funds are big short in US and EU futures.
This weeks US export inspections and export sales could be near last week and suggest slow demand for US exports. Russia wheat prices are below US. Ukraine corn and summer Brazil corn prices are below US. Brazil soybean and soymeal prices are below US. Oct-Dec World soybean and soymeal trade was 45.3 mmt vs 44.1 ly. Higher Argentina soybean exports offset lower US. USDA est World soybean and soymeal Oct-Sep exports at a record 179.5 mmt vs 175.4 ly.
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