Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SU is up 16 cents and near 13.71. SMU is near 420.3. BOU is near 58.89. CU is up 13 cents and near 5.93. WU is up 19 cents and near 7.89. KWU is up 19 cents and near 8.57. MWU is up 16 cents and near 9.00.
US stocks are lower. Crude is higher. US Dollar is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. US consumer confidence today, Fed meeting Wednesday and GDP Thursday.
There was Russia bombing of Ukraine port in Mykolaiv region. This is not one of the ports in the trade deal. Ukraine starting key counteroffensive. Headlines still suggest Ukraine export deal still on. Escalation of war adds doubt. Russia lowering Nord Steam gas flow to EU to 20 pct of capacity.
US N plains and upper Midwest dry. Rains are forecast in C plains, Delta and SE. 6-10 day Midwest forecast is warm and dry. EU dry. Managed funds still unwilling to add to longs due to recession threat despite warmer and drier long range US Midwest forecast.
US soybean futures gapped open higher overnight. SU is up 77 cents from recent low on talk of warmer and drier US Midwest weather. Talk China bought 25 Brazil soybean cargoes. They may now be covered for August, zero coverage for Sep and 40-50 pct covered for Oct-Nov. US season to date exports down 9 pct vs ly. USDA rated the soybean crop 59 pct G/E vs 61 last week. 32 pct of crop yield potential above trend, 48 pct trend and 15 pct below. One crop watcher dropped US soybean yield .5 bpa to 51.0. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. Matif rapeseed futures lower. Canada canola futures remain near season lows.
US corn futures gapped open higher overnight. CU is up 34 cents from recent low on talk of warmer and drier US Midwest weather. US season to date exports down 17 pct vs ly. USDA rated the corn crop 61 pct G/E vs 64 last week. 44 oct of crop yield potential above trend, 27 pct trend and 19 pct below. One crop watcher dropped US corn yield 2 bpa to 175.0. Matif corn is higher. EU dry weather pushing EU corn prices higher and increasing talk of higher imports. Higher prices though reducing ethanol, starch and feed profit and demand. EU consumer food demand switching to less meat.
US wheat futures have had an inside day so far overnight. WU is up 38 cents from recent low on talk of warmer and drier US north plains weather. USDA rated the US spring wheat crop 68 pct G/E vs 71 last week. Annual US spring wheat crop tour this week. USDA est US 2022 spring wheat yield a record 51 bpa. Matif wheat futures continue to trend higher. Sep-Dec spread new high. French wheat prices higher on increase export demand and talk of China buying.
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