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Global Ag News for Sept 12.22

HEADLINES TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/4 in SRW, up 2 1/2 in HRW, up 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans up 6 3/4; Soymeal up $0.35; Soyoil up 0.10.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 60 3/4 in SRW, up 54 in HRW, up 38 in HRS; Corn is up 20 1/2; Soybeans down 1 3/4; Soymeal down $0.35; Soyoil down 1.33.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 40 1/4 in SRW, up 19 1/4 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 15 1/2; Soybeans down 3 1/2; Soymeal down $0.90; Soyoil down 2.56.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 11% in SRW, up 16% in HRW, down -7% in HRS; Corn is up 16%; Soybeans up 11%; Soymeal up 7%; Soyoil up 23%.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 82 ringgit (+2.28%) at 3676. China markets are closed for Holiday

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 3,084 SRW Wheat contracts; 1 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 61 Soyoil; 76 Soymeal; 40 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 9 were: SRW Wheat up 1,594 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,225, Corn up 7,006, Soybeans up 2,028, Soymeal down 183, Soyoil down 795.

The player sheet for Sept. 9 had funds: net buyers of 13,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 8,000 corn, buyers of 8,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 104,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to Taiwan for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year that began Sept. 1.
  • CORN TENDER PASSED: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group made no purchase in an international tender for about 65,000 tonnes of animal feed corn which closed on Sept. 7

PENDING TENDERS

  • RICE TENDER UPDATE: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer on Tuesday received a lowest price offer of $439.11 a tonne CIF liner out in an international tender to import 50,000 tonnes of rice, officials from the grain purchasing agency and traders said.
  • SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase around 30,000 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically modified organisms
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state buyer opened a tender for 120,000 tonnes of wheat to be shipped in March and April. The tender closes on Sept. 13.
  • BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state buyer issued an international tender for 120,000 tonnes of barley, a government source said. The deadline for offers is Sept. 14.
  • FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Dec. 31 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 24, 2023, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Sept. 14.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buying agency postponed the deadline for submission of price offers in its international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of wheat from Sept. 1 to Sept. 18

U.S. Agriculture Dept to release four weeks export data on Sept. 15

The U.S. Agriculture Department (USDA) said in a statement on Friday that it would release four weeks of weekly export sales data on Sept. 15.

“The Aug. 18 and Aug. 25 data will be combined in a single report,” the Department said in a statement. “Separate reports will be issued for the reporting periods ending Sept. 1 and Sept. 8.”

The department on Aug. 25 retracted weekly commodities export data it had released after a technical misstep during the launch of a new export sales reporting platform left traders scrambling and caused uncertainty in the futures markets.

The data on Sept. 15 will be published via the USDA’s legacy export sales reporting system, the agency said.

Argentinian Soybeans Flood Market as US Forecasts Record Harvest

Farmers in Argentina rushed to sell stockpiled soybeans this week after the government implemented a temporary devaluation of the peso intending to spur exports. The influx of low-priced supplies to the global market just as the US is preparing for a bumper harvest could pressure global prices.

In the four days since the Argentinian government’s currency policy went into effect, sales to exporters accounted for a whopping 2.45 million metric tons, or 8.5% of the total crop. Additionally, farmers have completed transactions on delayed-price contracts for an additional 1.21 million metric tons, meaning that 3.66 million metric tons of soy have been traded since the weaker exchange rate was put in place.

The supply increase may help cap prices for the commodity used in animal feed, cooking oil and fuel that have increased 45% in the past two years, offering some respite to rampant inflation. It is also bad timing for US farmers as the US Department of Agriculture estimated a record year for domestic soybean production. A closely-watched industry tour of domestic crops in late August forecast a harvest of 4.535 billion bushels (123.4 million tons), slightly above the USDA figure.

Planet Labs Boosts US Corn Crop Estimate Ahead of WASDE

US corn crop forecast at 177.6 bushels per acre for September, Planet Labs PBC says, ahead of August estimate of 176 bu/acre.

  • USDA’s August corn estimate was 175.4 bushels
  • Soybean yields for September estimated at 51.1 bu/acre, above August estimate of 50.4 bu/acre, satellite-imaging firm says in report
    • USDA’s Aug. est. at 51.9 bu/acr
  • Planet Labs technology uses satellite data that includes soil water content, land surface temperature and vegetation optical depth

Iran to Unload 70,000 Tons of Russian Wheat at Bandar Abbas Port

Customs officials in southern Iran have been told to expedite the clearance and distribution of a 70,000-ton shipment of wheat from Russia that’s expected to dock in the coming days, the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported.

Alireza Ahmadi Manesh, prosecutor-general for Hormuzgan province, told reporters that a ship carrying the cargo, along with another vessel carrying 30,000 tons of rice, is expected to dock at Shahid Rajaei port in Bandar Abbas on Iran’s Persian Gulf coast, according to ISNA.

Ahmadi Manesh didn’t give any further details about the shipment or say when it had departed Russia.

Putin Insists Grain Should Be Sent to Poorest Countries

Russian President Vladimir Putin says that while some doubt his earlier claim that a majority of grain shipped from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports is going to developed countries, he believes his assessment is right, according to televised remarks.

  • Putin asks Foreign Ministry to work with UN on shipping grain to poorest countries
  • It’s normal that some grain remains in Turkey
  • Russia will export 30m tons of grains by the end of this calendar year, ready to increase exports to 50m tons in the future
  • EU sanctions are still blocking sales of Russian fertilizers outside of EU
  • Offers to ship fertilizers accumulated in EU ports to developing countries for free

France to agree deal with Romania to increase Ukraine grain exports – minister

France’s transport minister said on Sunday he would sign an agreement with Romania to increase Ukrainian grain exports to developing countries including to the Mediterranean.

“Tomorrow, I will sign an accord with Romania that will allow Ukraine to get even more grains out … towards Europe and developing countries, notably in the Mediterranean (countries)which need it for food,” Clement Beaune told LCI television, adding that the deal covered exports by land, sea and river.

Planet Earth

Malaysia end-August palm oil stocks jump 18% to 2.09 mln T-MPOB

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks at the end of August climbed 18.16% from the previous month to 2.09 million tonnes, data from the industry regulator, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), showed on Monday.

Crude palm oil production rose 9.67% from July to 1.73 million tonnes, while palm oil exports fell 1.94% to 1.3 million tonnes, MPOB said.

A Reuters survey forecast inventories to jump 14.5% to 2.03 million tonnes. Production was seen 8% higher at 1.7 million tonnes. Exports was pegged 0.14% lower at 1.32 million tonnes.

Argentina Soy Trades Reach 3.66m Tons After FX Measure: Bourse

Farmers traded another 660,000 metric tons of soybeans on Thursday after the government temporarily devalued the peso for them from Sept. 5, Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says in a report.

  • New sales account for 2.45m tons
  • Farmers have completed transactions on delayed-price contracts for another 1.21m tons

USDA FAS Sees Lower China Soy Imports on Weak Food, Feed Demand

China’s soybean imports in the 2022-23 season are now seen at 96.5m tons, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service says in a report.

  • That’s below the latest official USDA outlook for 98m tons
  • Shrinking estimate is due to weak demand for vegetable oil in the food-service sector and for soybean meal on hog and poultry farms
    • “China’s slowing economy and COVID-related restrictions continue to weaken demand for oilseeds for feed and food use”
  • NOTE: China is world’s top soy importer

CPO FUTURES LIKELY TO TRADE ON A SLIGHTLY UPWARD BIAS NEXT WEEK

Crude palm oil (CPO) futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives are expected to trade on a slightly upward bias next week, said a dealer.

This is because of a weaker-than-expected output owing to the recent labour shortage.

“Hence, we expect prices to trade between RM3,500 and RM4,000 next week,” he told Bernama.

Another dealer expects the CPO market to trade between RM3,300 and RM3,500 per tonne next week amid high inventory levels and global recession fears.

It is hoped that lower prices will benefit consumers and help ease the rising food inflation.

For the week-just-ended, Malaysian CPO futures were mostly lower, influenced by the softer soybean market performance, falling crude oil prices, lockdowns in several Chinese cities due to COVID-19 and higher CPO production.

On a Friday-to-Friday basis, CPO futures contracts for spot month September 2022 decreased by RM711 to RM3,438 a tonne, October 2022 fell RM363 to RM3,542 a tonne, November 2022 was RM336 lower at RM3,579 a tonne, and December 2022 gave up RM313 to RM3,621 a tonne.

Meanwhile, January 2023 shed RM293 to RM3,668 a tonne and February 2023 slid RM288 to RM3,715 a tonne.

Total volume rose to 344,758 lots from 238,728 lots in the previous week, while open interest expanded to 261,706 contracts from 189,745 contracts.

Physical CPO price for September South dipped RM300 to RM3,650 a tonne.

Malaysia Aug. Palm Oil Exports to India -9.2% M/m: Details

Malaysia’s palm oil exports to India fell 9.2% to 0.23 million tons in Aug. from a month earlier, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board posted on its website.

  • Exports to India -9.2% m/m to 234,072 tons, -23.9% y/y
  • Exports to China +128.9% m/m to 126,657 tons, -7.9% y/y
  • Exports to EU +74.9% m/m to 130,353 tons, +19.8% y/y

Malaysia Aug. Palm Stockpiles +18.2% M/m to 2.09M Tons: MPOB

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the world’s second-largest producer, rose 18.2% to 2.09 million tons in August from a month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement today.

  • Palm oil exports -1.9% m/m to 1.3m tons
  • Imports +11.4% m/m to 145,452 tons
  • Crude palm oil production +9.7% m/m to 1.73m tons

South America’s Cresud Sees Smaller Margins on High Input Prices

Argentina-based farm company Cresud sees its margins narrowing next season, especially in Brazil, as crop prices fail to keep pace with the rising cost of agricultural chemicals, CEO Alejandro Elsztain said on an earnings call.

  • Cresud has a bigger budget for the next crop season and will grow its planting area by 2% to 4% in Brazil, while staying stable in Argentina
  • Company has traded 90% of its Argentine soybeans, so can only tap a temporary FX devaluation for the remaining 10%
  • May well sell farmland in Brazil in the months ahead, helping its rural real-estate segment
  • Will decide whether to extend a ARS1b share buyback program after current repurchase deadline ends in November

EU Corn Crop Falls 21% This Year on Drought, Copa-Cogeca Says

Corn production in the EU-27 nations has declined 20.8% y/y to 55m tons, farm lobby Copa-Cogeca says in an emailed report on the 2022 harvest.

  • “The summer drought had a particularly severe impact on the harvest of grain maize”
  • Total cereal production expected at 269m tons, a “significant decrease” of 6.8% vs 2021 harvest
  • Common wheat output was seen at 125.6m tons, a 2.5% reduction from the previous year; durum wheat fell by 7.4% to 7.4m tons
  • “The price of all fertilizers going up again, as well as the difficulties of supply in certain countries will have consequences on the productions for 2023, in yield, in quality and in type of planted crops”
  • Meanwhile, sunflower was down 7% y/y, rapeseed up 16.2% and soybean up 4.7%

Nigeria to Improve Wheat Production With Locally Modified Seeds

  • Nation partners with Olam to start replicating seedlings
  • Nigeria imports most of its wheat for local consumption

Nigeria, Africa’s largest buyer of wheat, is partnering with food company Olam International Ltd. to develop seed varieties of the grain that are suitable for its climate, which will boost local output and cut dependence on imports.

Olam unit Crown Flour Mill Ltd., has produced so-called nucleus seeds suitable for the West African nation’s topography and climate, Ashish Pande, the country head for Olam Agri Nigeria, said at a virtual media briefing on Friday.

Africa’s most populous country placed restrictions on wheat imports before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted supply. But it harvested less than 1% of the 4.7 million tons of the grain it consumed in 2021, according to the US Department of Agriculture. The surge in the price of the cereal crop helped fuel the inflation rate for food, which rose to 22% in July from a year earlier.

Domestic wheat production has been hampered by lack of appropriate seed varieties that can be grown in local whether conditions, high fertilizer costs and the lack of irrigation facilities.

The new seeds “gives some assurance that the investment of Olam will accelerate production” in Nigeria across the wheat-farming belt, Kachalla Mala, the principal research officer at Lake Chad Research Institute, said at the briefing.

U.S. says no disruption to Russian food, fertilizer exports

Russian food and fertilizer exports are “completely in line, or maybe even going up, from its patterns from 2012” and Moscow’s complaints that its shipments are being hindered by sanctions are misinformation, said a senior U.S. official on Friday.

“We’re seeing no disruption in Russia’s ability to send food to market,” James O’Brien, head of the State Department’s Office of Sanctions Coordination, told reporters. “The fertilizer is still reaching markets at the same rate that it always has.”

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Amid lower demand and Argentina’s higher interest in sales, values drop in BR

Soybean prices dropped in both Brazil and the United States in the last days, influenced by the higher interest of Argentineans in sales, lower international demand and the nearness of the 2022/23 harvesting in the USA. Rains forecast for the major soybean-producing regions in Brazil from the second fortnight of September onwards also contributed for a more optimistic scenario, pressing down future prices.

In Brazil, the host-free period ends on Saturday (10), thus, sowing of the new crop is expected to begin soon in Paraná and some areas in Rondônia. In São Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Amazonas and the remaining areas in Rondônia, the host-free period ends on Sept. 15, according to Embrapa’s calendar.

With the current favorable weather, purchasers lowered bids, despite the forecast of a new cold front in September, international devaluations and the dollar depreciation. Thus, some sellers agreed to sell the remaining of the 2021/22 crop at lower prices, fearing higher pressure on quotations as the American harvest arrives at the market.

Between September 1st and 8th, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index Paranaguá (PR) and the CEPEA/ESALQ Index Paraná dropped by 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively, closing at BRL 186.48 (USD 35.80)/60-kilo bag and at BRL 180.42 (USD 34.64)/bag on Thursday, 8. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices decreased by 0.3% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and by 0.4% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). The US dollar dropped by 0.5% in the last seven days, to BRL 5.209 on Thursday.

BY-PRODUCTS – The higher volume of soybean products supplied by Argentina – the number one exporter of soybean meal and oil in the world – increased pressure on quotations. On Sunday (5), the Argentinean Government announced incentives for producers by raising the currency exchange rate so that they may be able to sell the product stocked.

CORN/CEPEA: Demand weakens in Brazil, and quotations fade

Brazilian purchasers resumed leaving the national spot market in the last days, putting pressure on prices this week. These agents are watching out for the beginning of the harvesting in the United States and are aware of both the estimates for a high harvest in Brazil and the recent corn devaluations at ports.

Although sellers have no need for cash flow, they have been willing to lower asking prices, due to the high stocks this season. This scenario is being observed majorly in central-western Brazil, where most of the second crop is concentrated and where farmers have had problems stocking the cereal.

Although values faded in most of the regions surveyed, local conditions underpinned prices in some other areas, highlighting that prices may still follow opposite directions, depending on volume, warehouses, freight costs, the dollar and demand.

Between September 1st and 8th, on the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, values increased by a slight 0.1% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) but dropped by 0.3% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn (Campinas, SP) decreased by 0.5% in the same period, closing at BRL 83.25 per 60-kilo bag on Thursday, 8.

PORTS – Corn prices have faded at Brazilian ports this week, influenced by devaluations abroad and the dollar depreciation. Besides, agents are ware that the exports from Argentina may set a record in the 2022/23 season. Besides, the Government’s decision to raise the currency exchange rate for short-term deals may increase the world supply of corn.

Thus, in Paranaguá (PR), quotations dropped by 1.9% in the last seven days, to BRL 86.89/bag on Thursday, 8. In Santos (SP), values decreased by 0.8%, to BRL 87.61/bag. The US dollar dropped by a slight 0.5%, to BRL 5.209 on Thursday. However, for delivery in the coming months, prices have been more attractive, around BRL 90/bag.

Worsening Droughts Drive Premiums for Farmland With Water Access

  • Acreage left to fallow as water dries up in key planting areas
  • Investors shun some California properties amid megadrought

Shrinking water supplies are creating a two-tiered market in farmland investing, lifting values for properties with access to groundwater or aquifers.

“We’re ultimately acquiring water first,” said Carter Malloy, founder and chief executive officer of AcreTrader, a Fayetteville, Arkansas-based platform for investing in agricultural land. If the land “happens to have some trees on it growing citrus, that’s great news.”

Much of the land in California’s Central Valley, which accounts for about a quarter of US food production, is idle this year as a megadrought forces unprecedented cuts to water supplies. Crops are also withering from Nebraska to Maine in the latest example of how climate change is wreaking havoc on farming.

Food and fuel prices have soared since Russia invaded Ukraine, keeping vital grain supplies off the world market. With inflation the highest in four decades, rising farmland values can be a hedge for agricultural investors. But not all acres are created equal. In California some farmers are removing almond trees due to a lack of water reserves.

Peru’s Third Attempt to Buy Urea for Farmers Fails: Minister

Peru’s third attempt to buy urea failed, Agriculture Minister Andres Alencastre said to RPP TV.

  • The italian supplier company Unionsped abandoned the process due to its own criteria, Alencastre said
  • Alencastre said they will take legal action against the company for having delayed the urea purchase operation
  • Government decided to give PEN341 millions in monetary aid to small farmers to buy fertilizers instead
  • Agriculture leader Climaco Cardenas said to Exitosa TV, Alencastre would be responsible if a food crisis occurs in the country and asked him to resign as minister

Fertilizer Prices Climb Ahead of Fall Application Season

US nitrogen prices have risen dramatically after aggressive summer fill programs, fueled by a rash of nitrogen-plant outages in Europe due to surging natural gas costs. Smaller increases were seen for phosphates after several weeks of steady prices, while the potash market remained pressured at New Orleans and inland.

Urea Volatility Continues Amid India Tender in Friday Findings

Urea prices topped out and retreated at New Orleans (NOLA) during the week, with softer pricing also observed in Brazil as the global industry awaits news of India’s latest urea tender. The tender closed on Sept. 9 with 2.2 million metric tons (mt) offered. Tender prices are expected to be released on Sept. 12. Although NOLA urea slipped to $630-$680 a short ton (st) vs. last week’s $680-$710 and Corn Belt prices also dropped slightly, urea prices were up in the western US and Canada, along with higher ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) prices in both markets. UAN and ammonia prices also inched higher in the Corn Belt after last week’s rapid run-up, and phosphate prices moved up slightly as well at NOLA and inland after weeks of flat pricing. Potash remained flat-to-lower in early September.

Brazil Urea Prices Seek Direction; Potash, Phosphates Drop

The Brazil urea market was quiet as the industry awaits India’s latest tender results. Though no negotiations were confirmed, offered prices have settled $30 a metric ton below last week’s highs. Potash and phosphate prices, meanwhile, keep weakening as sellers try to attract new orders in an oversupplied market.

Urea Price Uncertainty Freezes Brazil Nitrogen Negotiations

Brazil urea changed course this week after recent higher prices lost traction. Price indications suggested a drop of $30 a metric ton (mt) as players await the results of India’s tender, which closed on Sept. 9 with 2.25 million tons offered. Sellers said market uncertainty has contributed to a widened range of possible prices, with minimal negotiations taking place until tender results are released on Sept. 12 and provide more direction. Phosphate and potash prices fell further and may remain pressured as sellers push to release stagnant inventories.

Though August fertilizer imports have slowed, January-August arrivals exceeded last year by 9.4%. Potash purchases are up 1.6 million mt, or 20.5% year-over-year. Year-to-date urea imports are down 213,000 mt, or 4.6%, with a recovery needed before demand accelerates in 4Q.

US Beef Production Falls 5% This Week, Pork Down: USDA

US federally inspected beef production falls to 494m pounds for the week ending Sept. 10 from 520m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

  • Cattle slaughter down 5.3% from a week ago to 604m head
  • Pork production down 4.9% from a week ago, hog slaughter falls 4.8%
  • For the year, beef production is 1.1% above last year’s level at this time, and pork is 2.7% below

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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