Global Ag News for May 3.24

TOP HEADLINES

IKAR Lowers 2024-25 Russia Crop Estimate by 2M Tons, Exports Cut

Russia’s 2024-25 wheat harvest is now seen at 91m tons, below an earlier estimate for 93m tons, IKAR general director Dmitry Rylko says by email.

• Export outlook lowered to 50.5m tons, from 52m tons
• Estimate for total grain output lowered to 142m tons, from 146m tons

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 12 3/4 in SRW, up 17 1/2 in HRW, up 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/4; Soybeans up 10 1/2; Soymeal up $6.80; Soyoil down 0.24.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 5 1/4 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, up 10 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 14; Soybeans up 32 1/4; Soymeal up $27.00; Soyoil down 2.54.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 13 3/4 in SRW, up 18 3/4 in HRW, up 9 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 17 1/4; Soybeans up 46 1/2; Soymeal up $19.80; Soyoil down 0.01.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 6.6% in SRW, down 0.8% in HRW, down 2.1% in HRS; Corn is down 3.3%; Soybeans down 7.1%; Soymeal down 4.8%; Soyoil down 11.3%.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 7 ringgit (-0.18%) at 3839. China markets are closed for Holiday.

There were changes in registrations (220 Corn, -42 Soybeans, -21 Soyoil). Registration total: 1,438 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 450 Corn; 589 Soybeans; 2,562 Soyoil; 226 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 2 were: SRW Wheat up 1,138 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,208, Corn up 21,109, Soybeans up 18,576, Soymeal up 15,354, Soyoil up 4,556.

Northern Plains: Scattered showers are expected to move through the region through Friday, which includes a little snow in Montana. After a very short break, a much stronger system is forecast to move in on Sunday or Monday with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. Showers could stick around for a few days. The active and overall colder weather will make it difficult to get out into the field in some areas, but help to ease the remaining drought and add soil moisture.

Central/Southern Plains: The pattern continues to be active with multiple storm systems moving through over the next ten days, keeping planting slower and aiding soil moisture in many areas, though flooding may still be a concern in areas with heavy rainfall. The southwest is not in a favored location for getting much precipitation into the area, but possibly on Sunday with an off-chance of better precipitation later next week. Wheat conditions are likely to continue falling if significant rain does not come soon.

Midwest: The pattern stays active and the gap between storms remains short as another system moves across the region through Friday, one moves through this weekend, and another is eyeing the region for early next week that may come through in several bursts. Long-term rainfall deficits are being eroded quickly in some areas, but wet field conditions are going to slow planting down quite a bit. Not all areas are getting the heavy rain though, and may find some gaps between thunderstorms to continue working. The moisture is likely to be needed for the summer, which should be overall beneficial even if it delays planting.

Delta: The region continues to be fairly wet, but the gaps between rains has been longer than areas farther north and west. Even with all the rain, planting progress has been quick this spring. Scattered showers will be moving through at times though, and slow down additional progress. The gap between storms may be shorter next week.

Canadian Prairies: An active and cold pattern continues to bring multiple storm systems through the middle of next week, which may be helpful for bringing additional moisture over the expansive drought, but slow planting progress and could contain some snow.

Brazil: Much of the safrinha corn growing areas will be dry for the foreseeable future, though far northern and southern areas may see some isolated showers at times. That means that it will also be hot, which will force corn to draw upon its limited subsoil moisture as the crop goes through the rest of pollination and grain-fill. Damage to the crop will become more apparent with time. Rio Grande do Sul, which is in the midst of corn and soybean harvest in the far south, is seeing fronts waffle around in the region that will keep them wet through next week, disrupting the remaining harvest and make planting of winter wheat difficult.

Argentina: A front will continue to waffle around northern Argentina through next week as disturbances move through the country. Those disturbances will bring occasional showers to southern areas but heavier rain farther north with the front. That will make corn and soybean harvest more difficult where the rain occurs. Cold air will build behind the front this week and may lead to frosts on Friday. Cold air moving back in next week may do the same.

Europe: Scattered showers continue in western Europe, which is bad news for the UK and France which continue to be too wet, but favorable for Spain. A system will transfer showers across the south over the next couple of days, but the break between storms is short. Another system goes through the continent this weekend into next week with more rain. Temperatures will be generally mild to warm, but a cold front dropping through eastern areas late next week may bring a round of frosts through.

Black Sea: Isolated showers fell in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia over the last week, but most areas have been unfavorably dry. A front will move through today and Friday that will bring some cold temperatures and a stronger one will move through next week. It might be cold enough for frost, but cooler temperatures would be beneficial for reducing moisture demand for dry soils. Neither of these fronts have much precipitation forecast with them as dryness continues to be an issue for eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia.

Australia: A system continues with showers over western areas Thursday. A system should make its way through eastern areas Friday and Saturday, which would bring some beneficial rain, but to a somewhat limited area, mostly in northern New South Wales. Wheat planting continues to increase and the hope for better soil moisture will grow as El Nino continues its march toward La Nina over the next couple of months.

The player sheet for 5/2 had funds: net buyers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 6,500 corn, buyers of 12,000 soybeans, and buyers of 7,000 soymeal.

TENDERS

• WHEAT SALE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has bought soft milling wheat in an international tender which closed on Thursday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 116,900 metric tonnes of rice.
• CORN, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued international tenders to purchase up to 160,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 70,000 tons of soymeal.

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending April 25, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Egypt with 146k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Japan with 267k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Taiwan with 109k tons

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending April 25, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 21.6k tons of the 33.6k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

StoneX Raises Brazil Corn Outlook to 125.6M Tons

Estimate for Brazil’s corn production in the current season is now at 125.6 million tons, up 1.1% from April’s outlook, StoneX said in an emailed message Thursday.

• Forecast raised due to yields and production increases seen at summer crop in northeast states and also bigger crop to be harvested in Mato Grosso and Goiás states during winter crop
  • Summer and winter crops estimates for 2023-24 season still smaller than in previous year
  • Brazil’s total corn production estimate 9.8% down from 2022-23 crop season
• Corn exports outlook for 2024 kept at 45m tons, domestic consumption at 84m tons
• Final stocks seen up 10.9% from previous estimate in April, to 13.4m tons
• Soy crop forecast slightly raised to 150.83m tons, down 4.7% from previous year
  • New cuts to be done at soy estimates as bountiful rains in southern state Rio Grande do Sul are expected to damage fields
  • Final stocks raised by 18.3% to 3.42m tons due to higher imports mainly from Paraguay

Argentina Soy Forecast Could Fall After Damage in North: Bourse

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s forecast for a 2024 soybean harvest of 51m metric tons may fall as farmers in two northern provinces report damage to plants after hot and dry weather in March, analysts led by Cecilia Conde said in a weekly report.

• Soy harvest progress is 36%, trailing the average for this time of year by 12 percentage points
• The bourse axed its corn forecast by 6.1% to 46.5m tons as it continues to account for damage by leafhoppers, especially on the late-planted crop

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates May 2: Exchange (Table)

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2023-24 corn production est. lowered to 46.5m tons from 49.5m
• Corn harvest at 22.1% complete vs 19.8% in the previous week
• Soybean production est. maintained at 51m tons

Drought Eases in US Corn and Soybean Regions: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending April 30, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Corn area experiencing moderate to intense drought fell to 19% vs 23% in the previous week
• Soybean area in drought declined by 4 percentage points to 17%
• Winter wheat declined by 2 points to 28% in drought

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 442k tons in the week ending April 27 from 463k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 32.2% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 47% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $8.42 per short ton, an increase of $0.16 from the previous week

 

 

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