Global Ag News for June 28.23
Positive IOD to Cut Aussie Winter Crop Yield
Australia’s run of three back-to-back bumper winter crops, helped by the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, will probably end with the arrival of the positive phase of the weather factor. Annual production in the country’s eastern coast exceeded 30 million tons between fiscal 2021 and 2023 ending March, compared to just 11.8 million tons in 2020 and 9.7 million tons in 2019. Bumper crops boost GrainCorp’s grains receivals and lift its export profit.
The IOD’s positive phase brings dryness to Australia’s grain belt. The last IOD positive event in 2019-20 resulted in the hottest and driest year ever for Australia, leading to wildfires in New South Wales which destroyed 46 million acres of forest.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 1 3/4 in SRW, down 1 1/2 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 5; Soybeans down 10 1/2; Soymeal down $5.20; Soyoil up 0.20.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 49 in SRW, down 23 3/4 in HRW, down 28 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 32; Soybeans down 26 1/4; Soymeal down $18.10; Soyoil up 2.36.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 89 1/4 in SRW, up 52 3/4 in HRW, up 62 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 34 1/4; Soybeans up 137 1/4; Soymeal up $15.20; Soyoil up 11.17.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 13.6% in SRW, down 5.9% in HRW, down 11.4% in HRS; Corn is down 7.4%; Soybeans down 1.6%; Soymeal down 15.5%; Soyoil down 4.4%.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 23) Soybeans down 6 yuan; Soymeal down 45; Soyoil down 36; Palm oil up 52; Corn down 15 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 81 ringgit (+2.20%) at 3756.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,389 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 1,052 Soyoil; 11 Soymeal; 97 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 27 were: SRW Wheat down 13,885 contracts, HRW Wheat down 5,391, Corn down 35,230, Soybeans down 14,188, Soymeal down 12,687, Soyoil down 3,233.
Northern Plains: Heavy rain moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, helping eliminate many of the drier patches in the region. Some areas were missed, however. A few disturbances will bring showers through the region both this week and next week, helping to fill in areas that were missed. Overall, the outlook is favorable for developing crops and forages.
Central/Southern Plains: Texas will continue to be hot all week and the heat will expand northeastward through the Central Plains for mid- to late-week. Some areas of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, though largely isolated until a front comes through this weekend to bring cooler temperatures into the region. That front may get stuck and bring more periods of rain to southern areas next week while the north may find some showers with another passing front. Sporadic rainfall will leave some areas drier with stress continuing over those in drought. Wheat harvest should increase this week.
Midwest: Widespread showers and thunderstorms moved across the Midwest this weekend into Monday, but rains missed some key areas in central Illinois. Still, there were large areas in drought that saw rain that desperately needed it. The region will be on the active side for the next couple of weeks, but rains will come in sporadic fashion, with some areas staying dry in the active pattern. Temperatures will build up above normal across the south and east later this week, which could cause additional stresses for those areas that continue to be dry. Needless to say, rainfall needs to hit the right places and quickly to maintain chances for good yields.
Delta: Heat should build up mid- to late-week that could be stressful for some of the drier areas in the Delta. Rainfall could develop Tuesday and Wednesday but a cold front coming through this weekend may bring needed showers into next week, as well as some milder temperatures.
Canadian Prairie: A front is largely stalling out in the Canadian Prairies and some disturbances moving through will help to bring at least some areas of showers throughout the week. The showers do not look overly widespread and many areas are going to be missed in the pattern. Any drier areas currently that continue to be dry this week may show significant stress in developing crops, especially in southern Alberta, where temperatures are likely to be higher most of the week. A system is forecast to move through Sunday and Monday, but the extent of any precipitation into next week is uncertain at this time. Temperatures should cool down, however.
The player sheet for 6/27 had funds: net sellers of 14,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 15,000 corn, sellers of 14,500 soybeans, sellers of 7,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,500 soyoil.
- SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of soymeal to be sourced from Brazil or Argentina, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is June 28.
- RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius has issued an international tender to buy 6,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is June 26.
ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report
Output and stockpile projections for the week ending June 23 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
- Production seen lower than last week at 1.045m b/d
- Stockpile avg est. 22.755m bbl vs 22.804m a week ago
Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching Up To 14.2 Million T In June Versus Up To 14.3 Million T Forecast In Previous Week – Anec
- BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING UP TO 14.2 MILLION T IN JUNE VERSUS UP TO 14.3 MILLION T FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
- BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.157 MILLION T IN JUNE VERSUS UP TO 1.46 MILLION T FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
- BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.317 MILLION T IN JUNE VERSUS 2.37 MILLION T FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
Brazil’s 2023 soybean crop to hit record 156 mln tns – Abiove
Brazil’s soybean output is expected to reach a record of 156 million metric tons in 2023, oilseed group Abiove said on Tuesday, raising its May estimate by 1 million metric tons as export projections were also revised upwards.
Soybean shipments from the world’s largest producer and exporter of the oilseed, the association said, are seen hitting an all-time high of 97 million metric tons this year, up from 95.7 million in the previous forecast.
EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rise 11% Y/y in Season Through June 25
The European Union’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 reached 30.8m tons as of June 25, compared with 27.7m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.
- Leading destinations include Morocco (4.68 tons), Algeria (4.08m tons) and Nigeria (2.78m tons)
- EU barley exports were at 6.34m tons, compared with 7.02m tons
- Corn imports stand at 25.5m tons, against 16.3m tons
- NOTE: Click here for figures on oilseed trade
- NOTE: The 2023-24 season begins July 1
Ukraine 2023 grain crop seen at 42.5 mln T – UCAB association
Ukraine’s grain harvest is likely to fall to 42.5 million tonnes in 2023 from around 53 million tonnes in 2022 due to a smaller sowing area, the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB) business association said on Tuesday.
The harvest could include 16.3 million tonnes of wheat, 21.1 million tonnes of corn and 4.2 million tonnes of barley, the association said in a statement.
First Deputy Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskiy said this week the ministry had revised its 2023 grain harvest forecast to 46 million tonnes from the previous outlook of 45 million tonnes.
He said farms in southern regions had already harvested the first 100,000 tonnes of new harvest grain.
UCAB, which also sees a larger oilseeds sowing area this year, said farmers could harvest a total of 18.9 million tonnes of oilseeds in 2023.
It could include 12.2 million tonnes of sunflower seeds, 3.8 million tonnes of soy beans and 2.9 million tonnes of rapeseed, it said.
“According to preliminary estimates, this harvest (combined grain and oilseed) will fully satisfy domestic demand and provide export potential of 43 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds,” UCAB said.
Ukraine has exported 48.4 million tonnes of grain as of June 26, four days before the end of the 2022/23 July-June marketing year.
Most of the volume was shipped abroad from deep Black Sea ports under the deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last July to tackle a global food crisis worsened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a blockade of Ukrainian ports.
The Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority said on Tuesday the country must be ready to export grain almost exclusively via its Danube River ports because Russia is effectively blocking Black Sea shipments.
Agri Merchant COFCO International’s Sales Dropped 4.5% in 2022
COFCO International Ltd. sold 127 million tons of commodities to third parties in 2022, down 4.5% from the previous year, it said in its annual sustainability report.
The Geneva-headquartered company is the trading arm of Chinese state-owned food corporation COFCO Corp
- Annual revenue jumped 11% to $53.3 billion
- Grains trading volumes were up 1.4% to 72m tons
- Oilseeds volumes dropped 7.3% to 38m tons
- Sugar crushing capacity grew by 2.7% to 18.5m tons
Probability of Russia’s exit from grain deal remains high – RIA
The probability of Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal in July remains high, although talks continue, Russia’s RIA news agency cited an anonymous source as saying on Wednesday.
Moscow has repeatedly complained that it was not getting what it wanted from the deal which has allowed grain to be shipped out of Ukrainian ports and expires on July 18.
Morocco to Import 2.5M Tons of Soft Wheat in July-September
State grains agency ONICL will purchase the wheat destined to make subsidized flour, the agency says in a statement.
- ONICL said it would accept origins from Ukraine, Russia, Argentina, France, Germany and the US
- Imports opened to silo operators such as traders and Moroccan agricultural cooperatives as well as to millers
- NOTE: USDA forecasts Morocco to import 7.5m tons of wheat in the full 2023-24 season
Low water again hampers Rhine river shipping in Germany
Low water levels after recent dry weather are again preventing cargo vessels from sailing fully loaded on the Rhine river in Germany with surcharges added to the usual freight prices, commodity traders said on Wednesday.
Low water is hampering shipping on most of the river south of Duisburg and Cologne, including the chokepoint of Kaub, traders said.
Shallow water means vessel operators impose surcharges on freight rates to compensate for vessels not sailing fully loaded, increasing costs for cargo owners. Dry weather in early June meant the river became too shallow, hindering shipping before rain raised water levels.
But rain forecast in river catchment areas in Germany from Thursday into the weekend could help raise water levels, traders said.
The Rhine is an important shipping route for commodities such as grains, minerals, ores, coal and oil products, including heating oil.
German companies faced supply bottlenecks and production problems in summer 2022 after a drought and heatwave led to unusually low water levels on the Rhine.
Indonesia Sets July 1-15 CPO Reference Price at $747.23/Ton
Govt raises crude palm oil reference price for July 1-15 to $747.23 a ton from $723.45 a ton in the last two weeks of June, according to trade ministry’s decree posted on website.
The reference price will increase export tax for the period to $18/ton and additional levy to $75/ton.
Argentina’s Cresud Granted ‘Responsible’ Soy Certification
Company’s 4,200-hectare (10,300-acre) “El Tigre” soy farm in La Pampa province obtained certification from the Round Table on Responsible Soy Association, Cresud says in a statement.
- NOTE: The round table is a Switzerland-based non-profit that develops and certifies global soybean-growing standards
- “This certification, renowned in the agricultural sector and highly valued by the international market, recognizes the company’s commitment to comply with the laws and good business practices, the provision of good working conditions, respect and relationship with local communities, care for the environment and production under adequate agricultural practices”
Monsoon to Cover India Earlier Than Usual in Boost for Farmers
India’s monsoon, which accounts for about three-quarters of annual rainfall, is set to cover the entire country about a week earlier than usual even after a delayed start.
The monsoon will likely cover the entire nation in the next two to three days, according to the India Meteorological Department. The swift progress this year may improve prospects for sowing crops including rice, pulses and soybeans.
The annual rains typically start on June 1 and reach the whole of India by July 8, before lasting through the end of September. They arrived on June 8 this year, the latest since 2019, according to data from the weather bureau.
Farmers in India, the world’s second-largest producer of rice, sugar and cotton, rely on the timing of the monsoon to decide which crops to grow. The four-month rainy season is crucial for production levels and food prices. The agriculture sector employs around half of the country’s workforce and a weaker-than-normal monsoon could put their livelihoods at risk.
India’s monsoon rainfall, which waters half of the country’s farm land, has been 16% below normal since the beginning of the season after a late start, according to the weather bureau. The northwest region got 42% more rain than average, while precipitation in the rest of the nation was below normal, it said.
The government has predicted a normal monsoon this year, with rainfall likely to be 96% of the long-term average. This has helped soothe concerns about inflation for now, although analysts are closely monitoring weather risks as an El Niño event and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could impact rainfall.
Prices of China’s edible agricultural products down last week
Prices of China’s edible agricultural products fell 0.3 percent last week from the previous week, official data showed Wednesday.
From June 19 to June 25, the wholesale prices of grain and oil fluctuated slightly, with flour and rapeseed oil down 0.5 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively, according to the Ministry of Commerce.
The wholesale prices of rice and soybean oil went up 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively, while peanut oil prices remained unchanged from the previous week.
Meanwhile, the wholesale prices of pork rose 0.5 percent week on week to 19.41 yuan (about 2.69 U.S. dollars) per kilogram, while those of beef and mutton fell 0.7 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively.
China’s consumer price index, a major gauge of inflation, edged up 0.2 percent year on year in May.
Lula Unveils Record Crop Financing Plan in Nod to Agribusiness
- Brazil leader has sought to mend ties with influential sector
- Plan also includes incentives for sustainable crop production
Brazil’s government will release a record amount of funding to support financing for the country’s agricultural industry, a plan that could provide President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva a boost with the influential sector.
The government will dedicate about 440 billion reais ($91.8 billion) to the crop plan known as Plano Safra, Lula and Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro announced at a Tuesday event in Brasilia. The total includes 364.2 billion reais for agribusiness, a 27% increase from 2022 and the most in the plan’s history, according to the government.
Another 75 billion reais for family farmers will be released in the coming days.
Plano Safra is a government plan that provides credit to Brazil’s farms and ranches. The country’s substantial agricultural industry makes it one of the world’s largest exporters of coffee, soybeans, beef and other products, but Brazilian farmers often still need assistance for investments into additional warehouse space, irrigation systems that make crops less susceptible to extreme weather, or other improvements.
The vast majority of the total will go toward funding and sales, while about 92 billion reais will be dedicated to investments. The government will offer 8% annual interest rates for entities that belong to a national program for medium-sized agricultural producers, and 12% for others. Interest rates for investments will vary between 7% and 12.5%, according to the plan.
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