Global Ag News for June 26.23

TOP HEADLINES

Indonesia plans to hike biodiesel mandate in next few years

Indonesia plans to raise its mandatory palm oil-based biodiesel blending to 40% in the next few years, but for now will keep it unchanged at 35%, the country’s energy minister said on Monday.

The world’s biggest palm oil producer raised mandatory blending from 30% to 35% in February, however it has not been fully implemented in some areas.

“Right now we stay with B35, and then we do preparation for B40. When we feel (it is) ready, then we launch,” Indonesian Energy Minister Arifin Tasrif told Reuters in an interview on the sidelines of the Energy Asia conference on Monday.

Arifin said Indonesia wants to maximise the use of domestic resources and reduce dependency on crude oil, and authorities have completed research and road tests for B40.

Eddy Abdurrachman, CEO of Indonesia’s CPO fund agency that is in charge of providing biodiesel subsidy, said the B35 mandate had not been fully implemented as there were issues with some blending facilities that need to be upgraded.

The ministry is pushing the B35 mandate to be fully implemented by Aug. 1.

Energy ministry official Edi Wibowo said biodiesel consumption as of June 25 stood at 5.2 million kilolitres, of 13.15 million kilolitres allocated for this year.

Indonesia’s biodiesel policy and the likely emergence of the El Nino weather pattern could further strain global inventories of the most used cooking oil, lifting palm oil prices this year, according to leading industry officials and analysts.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 18 3/4 in SRW, up 18 3/4 in HRW, up 14 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans up 10; Soymeal up $2.60; Soyoil up 0.54.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 63 3/4 in SRW, up 41 1/2 in HRW, up 31 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 10; Soybeans down 22 1/4; Soymeal down $2.40; Soyoil down 2.37.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 157 1/4 in SRW, up 95 1/4 in HRW, up 105 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 65 3/4; Soybeans up 173 1/2; Soymeal up $35.90; Soyoil up 9.35.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.1% in SRW, down 1.2% in HRW, down 6.8% in HRS; Corn is down 6.6%; Soybeans down 1.2%; Soymeal down 13.2%; Soyoil down 7.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 23) Soybeans down 1 yuan; Soymeal down 26; Soyoil up 26; Palm oil up 24; Corn up 1 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 96 ringgit (+2.65%) at 3716.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,389 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 1,076 Soyoil; 11 Soymeal; 97 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 23 were: SRW Wheat down 17,908 contracts, HRW Wheat up 408, Corn down 32,425, Soybeans down 17,697, Soymeal down 6,883, Soyoil down 12,321.

Northern Plains: Heavy rain moved through over the weekend, helping to eliminate many of the drier patches in the region. Some areas were missed, however. A few disturbances will bring showers through the region this week and weekend, helping to fill in areas that were missed. Overall, the outlook is favorable for reversing the dryness in the region this week.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated showers went through the region with a system this weekend, but was much drier than most forecasts while triple-digit heat build up into the Red River Valley as well. Texas will continue to be hot all week, though less so in the west, and the heat may expand northeastward later this week again. Some areas of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but mostly across the north until a front comes through this coming weekend to bring cooler temperatures into the region. That front may get stuck and bring more periods of rain to southern areas through next week. Sporadic rainfall will leave many areas drier with stress continuing over those dry areas and especially those in drought. Wheat harvest should increase this week.

Midwest: Widespread showers and thunderstorms moved across the region this weekend, but rains missed some key areas in central Illinois. Still, parts of Iowa, northern Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan saw rain that desperately needed it. The region will be on the active side for the next week, but rains will come in sporadic fashion, with many areas staying dry in the active pattern. Temperatures may peak up above normal across the south and east later this week, which could cause additional stresses for those areas that continue to lack rainfall. Needless-to-say, rainfall needs to hit the right places going forward to maintain chances for good yields.

Canadian Prairies: Some isolated showers moved through over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry. A front dropping south Sunday into Monday will largely stall out and some disturbances moving through the region will help to bring at least some areas of showers throughout the week. The showers do not look overly widespread and many areas are going to be missed in the pattern. Any drier areas currently that continue to be dry this week may show significant stress in developing crops, especially in southern Alberta, where temperatures are likely to be higher most of the week.

The player sheet for 6/23 had funds: net sellers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 22,500 corn, sellers of 14,000 soybeans, sellers of 8,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 6,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• NO PURCHASE IN SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have made no purchase in a tender which closed on Wednesday for 120,000 metric tons of soymeal.
• CORN PURCHASE: Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have bought an unknown volume of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from Argentina in an international tender for up to 120,000 metric tons which closed on Thursday, European traders said on Friday.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius has issued an international tender to buy 6,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.

 US Cattle on Feed Fell to 11.55M Head on June 1

The feedlot herd fell 2.9% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report. Analysts were expecting a drop of 3.3%

• Placements onto feedlots up 4.6% to 1.955m head
• First y/y increase since Aug. 2022
• Cattle marketed from feedlots increased 1.7% to 1.946m head

US May Pork Supplies in Cold Storage Dropped to 526M Pounds

According to the USDA’s June 23 cold storage report released on the agency’s website.

• Total pork fell 3.7% from May of last year
• Pork belly supplies rose to 82.5m pounds from 56.7m last year
• Beef supplies fell to 423.5m pounds from 526.1m last year

Ukraine puts grain exports at 48.4 million tonnes so far in 2022/23 season

Ukraine’s grain exports for the 2022/23 July-June season stood at 48.4 million tonnes as of June 26, four days before the end of the marketing year, agriculture ministry data showed on Monday.

The ministry said Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia in February last year, had exported the same volume of grain as of June 29, 2022.

It said the volume in the current season so far includes 16.6 million tonnes of wheat, 28.8 million tonnes of corn and about 2.7 million tonnes of barley.

The ministry said grain exports in June had reached 3.09 million tonnes.

Also on Monday, First Deputy Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskiy said Ukraine had revised its 2023 grain harvest forecast to 46 million tonnes from the previous outlook of 45 million tonnes.

He said farms in southern regions of Ukraine had already harvested the first 100,000 tonnes of new harvest grain.

Vysotskiy gave no reason for the change in the harvest outlook. Ukrainian weather forecasters have said they expect a good winter grain crop thanks to favourable weather conditions this spring.

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Prices rise in the USA, but dollar and premium limit valuations in BR

The conditions of soybean crops in the United States are getting worse and worse. Thus, prices have resumed rising in the international market – after being pressed down by the fast sowing activities between April and May –, being currently higher than USD 15.00/bushel, which had not been observed in two months. In Brazil, the influence of international valuations was limited by both the premiums, which are getting more and more negative, and the weaker US dollar. However, FOB prices have returned to around USD 30.00/60-kg bag, level that was last observed in early May.

According to the USDA, by June 18th, 12% of the North-American crops were in bad or very bad conditions; 34%, in average conditions; and 54%, in good or excellent conditions. In the previous week, 59% were in good/excellent conditions, against 68% in the same period last year.

Thus, the first contract (Jul/23) for soybean at CME Group (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) rose 5.1% between June 15-22, to USD 15.0050/bushel (USD 33.08/60-kg bag) on Thursday, 22.

In Brazil, on Thursday, June 22nd, FOB prices at Paranaguá port (PR) for shipment in July/23 had asks at -140 cents of dollar/bushel and bids at -160 cents of dollar/bushel, the lowest (for a first contract) since mid-April. Still, the FOB export value is calculated in more than USD 500.00/ton, returning to the levels from the first 10 days of April. These prices were also registered for shipments in August/23, while for the coming months, liquidity has been low.

The US dollar closed at BRL 4.778 on Thursday, the lowest level since June last year. This month, the American currency has devalued 4.7% compared to the Real.

International valuations made Brazilian sellers unwilling to lower their asks. Besides, many of them reduced the number of deals, expecting domestic prices to recover.

Between June 15-22, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index Paraná increased 2%, to BRL 129.68 (USD 27.14) per 60-kg bag June 22nd. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Paranaguá (PR) Index rose 4%, to BRL 139.58/bag (USD 29.21)/bag. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean prices increased 1.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 1.9% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).

CORN/CEPEA: Favored by scenario abroad, corn Index rises for the 10th consecutive working day

Influenced by international valuations, corn prices are currently on the rise in most Brazilian regions surveyed by Cepea. In Campinas (SP), the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn has been rising for 10 consecutive working days – on Thursday, 22, it closed at BRL 57.07 (USD 11.94)/60-kg bag, a staggering 5% up from that on June 15th.

This month, the corn Index has increased 6.14%. On the other hand, the monthly average in June, which is currently at BRL 54.37/bag, is still 6.5% lower than that from May and is also the lowest since October 2017.

Farmers are away from the spot market, monitoring crops in Brazil and the weather in the USA. Lower supply has raised high corn prices in producing regions, such as Paraná, Goiás and Mato Grosso. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, quotations increased a staggering 5.7% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 3.3% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

Abroad, corn valuations are linked to the worse conditions of crops in the United States. According to the USDA, 55% of the corn crops in the country are in good or excellent conditions, against 61% in the previous week and 70% in 2022. In average conditions are 33% (against 31% last week and 24% in 2022), and in bad or very bad conditions, 12% (against 8% last week and 6% last year).

Besides, agents from the sector fear that the current grains export agreement from the Black Sea will not be renewed by Russia – the agreement ends on July 18th. International corn valuations have been limited by rains forecast for the weekend in some areas in the USA, which may bring some relief to crops because of the water stress.

CROPS – The harvesting of the second crop of corn had reached 5.3% of the national area by June 17th, according to data from Conab, 5.8 percentage points behind that in the same period last year. As for the summer crop, 87.1% had been harvested by June 17th, still according to Conab.

India to Auction Wheat, Rice To Check Inflationary Trends

India’s government directs Food Corporation of India to conduct e-auctions of wheat and rice to check the inflationary trends in prevailing retail prices, according to a statement released Friday.

• Processors and traders, holding valid license from India’s food safety agency will be allowed to participate in auctions and the maximum quantity a buyer can bid will be limited to 100 metric tons
• The bidding is also limited to the local buyers and the measures have been taken to ensure a wider local reach for the stocks offered in a particular state

Indian Farmers Reduce Planting of Monsoon-Sown Rice, Corn

Farmers planted rice in 1.08m hectares (2.7m acres) as of June 23, compared with 1.65m hectares a year earlier, according to the farm ministry.

• Corn was planted in 759,000 hectares vs 978,000 hectares
• Monsoon-sown pulses were sown in 654,000 hectares vs 630,000 hectares
• Oilseeds were sown in 921,000 hectares vs 952,000 hectares
• Sugar cane was planted in 5.08m hectares vs 5.07m
• Cotton was planted in 2.8m hectares vs 3.27m

India’s oilseed exports may grow by 10-15 pc this fiscal: Exporters

India’s oilseed exports are expected to grow by 10-15 per cent during this fiscal as traders are getting good orders from regions like Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa, according to exporters. In 2022-23, the oilseed exports rose by over 20 per cent to USD 1.33 billion (around Rs 10,900 crore). The main oilseeds exported by the country are groundnut, sesame, soyabean, castor, and sunflower.

Former Chairman Indian Oilseeds and Produce Export Promotion Council (IOPEPC) Khushwant Jain said the order books are good and “we expect healthy growth this year also”.

Soyabean and groundnut occupy 61 per cent and 23 per cent, respectively of the total kharif oilseeds area, he said adding the planting of sunflower stands at 19.7 per cent and sesame at 12.4 per cent.

He said Madhya Pradesh alone has one-third (34.64 per cent) of the national oilseeds area followed by Maharashtra (22 per cent), Gujarat (13.53 per cent) Rajasthan (11.43 per cent), Karnataka (5.04 per cent), Andhra Pradesh (5.02), Uttar Pradesh (2.66 per cent), Telangana (1.74 per cent) and Tamil Nadu (1.21 per cent).

“Significant increase in acreage will help in boosting production this year and this means we will be able to export more,” Jain said.

The key export destinations for India are Indonesia, Vietnam, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, and the European Union.

Indian Oilseeds and Produce Export Promotion Council (IOPEPC) Vice-chairman Rutuparna Dole said that going by the current situation, “we expect a growth of 10-15 per cent”.

He said that groundnut and sesame seeds account for 80-85 per cent of total oilseed exports.

“The government is providing a lot of support to us. They are giving certified seeds to farmers, which is very important. We are conducting awareness programmes,” Dole added.

Russia’s Wheat-Export Tax to Fall to 2,473 Rubles/Ton: Tass

Russia’s wheat-export duty will fall next week to 2,473 rubles a ton, from 2,613 rubles, Tass reported, citing the agriculture ministry.

US Fertilizers Pressured Amid First-Round Summer Fill Programs

As farmers wrap up fieldwork, suppliers strive to empty bins and producers launch the first round of summer fill programs, US inland fertilizer prices continue to be squeezed. India’s first urea tender brought price relief as offers showed a decline of $50 a metric ton vs. the last tender, though it yielded less volume than expected.

NOLA Fertilizer Prices Mixed, Inland Markets Continue to Fall

With spring demand over, phosphate prices dropped sharply at central Florida and out of Corn Belt warehouses, though New Orleans (NOLA) barge prices were up slightly for phosphates on reports of tightening supply. NOLA urea also firmed slightly, while Brazil urea prices jumped $25-$40 a metric ton (mt) in the wake of India’s latest tender, which yielded lower volume than expected. Other fertilizer prices were flat to lower at NOLA and inland, with another drop in urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) prices reported in the Corn Belt and southern plains.

Aggressive summer fill prices for ammonia remained on the table in the Corn Belt and plains states after being launched the prior week. Spot potash prices were under pressure in the Corn Belt and plains in mid-June as the industry awaits the launch of potash fill programs in late June.

US Beef Production Up 2.1% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA

US federally inspected beef production rises to 527m pounds for the week ending June 24 from 516m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter up 2.4% from a week ago to 649m head
• Pork production up 1.5% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 1.8%
• For the year, beef production is 4.7% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 0.4% above

 Rhine water levels in Germany rise after rain, more shipping normalises

Water levels on the Rhine river in Germany rose again after heavy rain but remained too shallow in some central areas for fully loaded cargo vessels to sail, traders said on Friday.

Dry weather in June meant the river’s low water levels hampered shipping and vessel operators imposed surcharges on freight rates to compensate for vessels sailing partly empty, increasing costs for cargo owners.

A downpour on Thursday night, following rain on Wednesday, raised water to normal levels in more northern and southern sections of the river, commodity traders said.

This allowed vessels to take on full loads in the northern sections around Duisburg, traders added.

However, the Rhine is too shallow for normal sailing at the chokepoint of Kaub and central areas around Cologne. But vessels can sail with full loads in the southern sectors of the river to Switzerland.

Water at Kaub is expected to return close to normal levels, allowing full vessel loads late on Friday or Saturday morning, forecast German navigation authority WSV.

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