Global Ag News for July 6.22

HEADLINES TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are up 18 1/4 in SRW, up 13 in HRW, up 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/2; Soybeans up 10 1/2; Soymeal up $0.34; Soyoil up 0.15.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 32 in SRW, down 45 1/2 in HRW, down 58 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 33 1/4; Soybeans down 74; Soymeal down $0.71; Soyoil down 5.94. For the month to date wheat prices are down 58 3/4 in SRW, down 76 3/4 in HRW, down 94 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 43 3/4; Soybeans down 131 1/2; Soymeal down $25.70; Soyoil down 6.89.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 3% in SRW, up 7% in HRW, down -8% in HRS; Corn is up 26%; Soybeans up 18%; Soymeal up 11%; Soyoil up 7%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans down 70 yuan; Soymeal down 71; Soyoil down 508; Palm oil down 584; Corn down 31 –Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 117 ringgit (-2.80%) at 4057.

There were changes in registrations (1 Oat). Registration total: 2,668 SRW Wheat contracts; 1 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 98 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 66 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 5 were: SRW Wheat down 4,202 contracts, HRW Wheat up 318, Corn up 5,983, Soybeans up 654, Soymeal up 228, Soyoil up 1,033.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, above normal Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Periods of isolated to scattered showers through Friday, mostly north. Mostly dry to isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry to isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

West Midwest Forecast: Periods of isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above to near normal through Saturday

East Midwest Forecast: Periods of isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry east and isolated to scattered showers west Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry southwest and isolated showers northeast Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near normal Sunday-Thursday.

Canadian Prairies Forecast:  Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Friday-Saturday. Outlook: Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near normal Sunday-Thursday.

 Europe Forecast: Western Europe has hot and dry conditions in its 10-day forecast. The dry pattern is in place for possibly the next 10-day to two-week period. A very warm pattern also is well-established in the continent. An example of the abnormal warmth is noted from a snow monitoring station in the Austrian Alps, where snow has melted at the 10,000-foot altitude level. It is the earliest snow melt on record and comes six weeks earlier than the previous early record.

The player sheet for 7/5 had funds: net sellers of 13,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 24,000 corn, sellers of 23,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,500 soymeal, and  sellers of 12,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• PRIVATE WHEAT TALKS: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), is in private negotiations with trading houses about buying wheat without issuing an international tender
• DIRECT WHEAT PURCHASES: Egypt’s state grains buyer is believed to have bought around 444,000 tonnes of wheat directly from trading houses on Monday, traders said. The purchase comprised 214,000 tonnes of Russian wheat, 170,000 tonnes of French wheat and 60,000 tonnes of Romanian wheat, traders said.
• VEGETABLE OIL TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer said on Monday it was seeking at least 3,000 tonnes of soyoil and 1,000 tonnes of sunflower oil in a local production tender for arrival Aug. 10-30. Deadline for offers is on July 6.
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 tonnes of animal feed corn
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 130,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat, European traders said on Tuesday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is July 6.
• FOOD WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 122,420 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in regular tenders that will close on July 7.
• SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has provisionally purchased about 18,000 tonnes of crude sunflower oil in a tender for the same volume which closed on Tuesday
• WHEAT TENDER UPDATE: Only one trading house is believed to be participating in the tender on Tuesday from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase and import 50,000 tonnes of wheat
• HARD MILLING WHEAT SALE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased an estimated 120,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a tender which closed on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

US Inspected 677k Tons of Corn for Export, 355k of Soybean

Weedkiller Shortage Has Canola Farmers Scrambling, Manitoba Says

Herbicide shortages “have growers and retailers scrambling to find adequate supply to spray canola crops,” the province’s agriculture ministry says Tuesday in a report.

• Many crops have not had one application and “weed pressure is rising”
• Glufosinate herbicide shortages have forced farmers to wait for product or time a single application carefully
• Across province, spraying for weeds is wrapping up despite challenging conditions
• Condition of canola crops is “variable” across Manitoba due to late seeding, flea beetles, reseeding and hail

Canada Wheat Area at 25.4M Acres, Canola at 21.4M: StatsCan

Canadian farmers planted 0.36m acres more wheat than previously expected, according to Statistics Canada’s principal field crop areas report.

• Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 24.7m acres
• Canola planting at 21.4m acres, 0.52m acres above the previous est.

Canada Canola Crush at 592K Tons in May: StatsCan

Canola processing declined 27.9% in May from a year ago, according to Statistics Canada data released Tuesday on agency’s website.

• Oil production totaled 248k tons, and meal output at 356k tons
• Aug.-May crushings down 18.7% from year ago to 7.121m tons

Commodities Have Peaked, Prices to Stay Elevated: Citigroup

Commodities have peaked, but prices should remain high in the second half of this year, according to Citigroup in a global commodities report published today.

• If a tangible recession manifests, oil could fall to sub-$70/bbl levels
  • “This should be negative for commodities investor flows, sentiment and cost curves,” analysts led by Aakash Doshisaid
• Bank cut price targets for corn, soybean and wheat over next three months
  • Corn seen at $6.30/bushel, soybean at $14.15/bushel and wheat at $8.85/bushel
• Trading has “reset lower” because of rising recession risks, improved grain trade flows from the Black Sea and hefty long liquidation via speculators
• Traders could also be “anticipating a substantial deterioration of animal feed and crop-based biofuels demand over the next 6-9 months”
  • Supply uncertainty still prevails in the short-term

India’s July palm oil imports may surge to 10-month high as prices plunge

India’s palm oil imports in July are set to jump to the highest in 10 months because of a hefty correction in prices and as Indonesia allows more exports of the tropical oil, four dealers told Reuters.

Higher purchases by India, the world’s biggest importer of vegetable oils, may add support for Malaysian palm oil prices, which are trading near a one-year low.

India’s palm oil imports in July may rise to 700,000 to 800,000 tonnes, the highest since September 2021, the dealers said.

“Palm oil has become very attractive for Indian buyers after the recent fall in prices,” said one of the dealers, Sandeep Bajoria, the chief executive of vegetable oil brokerage and consultancy Sunvin Group.

Malaysian palm oil futures tumbled 10% on Wednesday to a near one-year low, on fears of rising stockpiles and a sell-off in commodities because of concerns that demand may fall in a potential global recession.

Indian buyers contracted to purchase nearly 250,000 tonnes of palm oil for prompt shipment last week, but this week’s drop in prices has confused many buyers and they are waiting for prices to stabilize, said another one of the dealers, who is based in New Delhi with a global trading firm.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, while soyoil is mainly sourced from Argentina, Brazil and the United States. India imports sunflower oil from Ukraine and Russia.

Palm oil’s discount has widened over rival oils and it has again become competitive, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm.

Crude palm oil  was being offered in India at about $1,100 a tonne, including cost, insurance and freight (CIF), for July shipments, compared with $1,360 for crude soybean oil.

Crude sunflower oil was offered at around $1,675 a tonne on a CIF basis, the dealers said.

In the past few months palm oil imports plunged as supplies were not enough, but now Indonesia has been supplying enough quantity, the Mumbai-based dealer said.

Indonesia has raised its palm oil export quota to reduce soaring inventories of the edible oil and as of Monday issued export permits for a total of 2.4 million tonnes of palm oil products. (Full Story)

“Palm oil imports even in August and September would remain robust if prices remain around the current level,” the New-Delhi based dealer said.

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Reserves May Return to Normal at End-Aug.

Indonesia’s palm oil stockpiles may return to normal at the end of August if govt accelerates permit issuance and exporters speed up shipments, said Sahat Sinaga, acting chairman of the country’s palm oil board.

Board asks govt to cut export levy and tax by 25% to help ease pressure on the price of palm’s fresh fruit bunches sold by farmers

Govt needs to hold 120,000 tons of bulk cooking oil reserves every month to control local prices

Indonesia Has Issued 2.49M Tons of Palm Oil Export Permits

About 1.39m tons of the palm oil export permits were issued based on DMO program, while the rest were based on accelerated program, according to trade ministry.

• Ministry is considering issuing crude palm oil reference price every 2 weeks to better follow price dynamics, said acting Director-General of Foreign Trade Veri Anggrijono
• Govt will discuss the idea with industry players
• Govt may take into account CPO prices at auction held by state-owned Kharisma Pemasaran Bersama Nusantara when considering export reference price

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Close 2021-22 Season Up 6.8% Y/y

Soft-wheat shipments in the 2021-22 season that ended June 30 totaled 27.5m tons, compared with 25.7m tons the prior year, the European Commission said Tuesday on its website.

• NOTE: Figures for the prior season include trade for the UK until Dec. 31, 2020, when the country departed the EU customs union
• Top soft-wheat destinations were Algeria (4.9m tons), Egypt (2.73m tons) and Nigeria (2.24m tons)
• EU barley exports were 6.97m tons, compared with 7.42m tons a year earlier
• EU corn imports at 16.4m tons, against 15.2m tons a year earlier

Weedkiller Shortage Has Canola Farmers Scrambling, Manitoba Says

Herbicide shortages “have growers and retailers scrambling to find adequate supply to spray canola crops,” the province’s agriculture ministry says Tuesday in a report.

• Many crops have not had one application and “weed pressure is rising”
• Glufosinate herbicide shortages have forced farmers to wait for product or time a single application carefully
• Across province, spraying for weeds is wrapping up despite challenging conditions
• Condition of canola crops is “variable” across Manitoba due to late seeding, flea beetles, reseeding and hail

Wet Canada Weather May Give Relief to World Wheat Supply Squeeze

• More wheat acres may help replenish global supplies: analyst
• Canola acres seen falling as farmers shift acres to cereals

A soggy start to spring in parts of Canada may be good news for wheat supplies.

Wheat acres will rise 8.7% to 25.4 million acres, the highest level in a decade, Statistics Canada said Tuesday in a report. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey expected 24.7 million. High prices and heavy rainfall in parts of the eastern Prairies may have spurred farmers to shift acres to cereal crops.

“The acreage number along with average to trend yields will replenish global wheat supplies,” Jerry Klassen, an independent trader and market analyst in Winnipeg, Manitoba, said before the report’s release. “The Canadian wheat crop will offset a larger portion of the shortfall from Ukraine.”

Canada is a major wheat exporter and the potential for more output comes as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is creating uncertainty about grain shipments from one of the world’s vital breadbaskets. Meanwhile, canola acres in Canada, the world’s top grower and exporter, are expected to fall 4.7% from a year ago to 21.4 million as farmers shifted acres away from the oilseed, the nation’s statistics agency said.

China Swaps Out US Soybeans as Demand Flips to South America

Chinese buyers swapped out US soybeans for Brazilian shipments as the recent harvest made South American supplies cheaper, according to people familiar with the deals.

• At least five cargoes that initially were booked as US shipments in August will instead load in South America
• Stronger US dollar also made Brazilian supplies more economical
• The move is “unusual” as Brazilian soybean-exports typically dwindle at this time of year, according to Terry Reilly, senior commodity analyst at Futures International LLC in Chicago
• Weaker-than-normal demand for US oilseeds and grain has added to pressure on Chicago futures markets, with recent selling wiping out 2022’s gains

Bulgaria Seeks Options to Help Process Ukraine Grain Loads

Bulgaria’s state-owned Varna port may hold talks with operators of private port terminals to help find storage and process grain loads from Ukraine, the Transport Ministry in Sofia says in a statement.

• The existing grains storage capacity at all terminals, state-owned and private, is 150,000 tons
• The ministry is planning to seek urgent financial aid from the European commission to build additional silos

India Tax Relief on Biofuels to Boost Gasoline, Diesel Blending

Ethanol used for blending with gasoline to the extent of 15% will be exempted from excise duty, according to a government notification.

• The unblended portion of gasoline will continue to attract the levy
• NOTE: The current exemption on ethanol is for blending up to 10%
• Similarly, bio-diesel used for blending as much as 20% with diesel will also be exempted from such tax

Russia May Ban Commodities Sales Contracts in FX at Home: RBC

The Russian government is discussing a ban on domestic commodities contracts that link prices to foreign currencies or foreign indexes, RBC wire reports, citing a draft law submitted by the Ministry of Justice.

• The proposed ban would be in place through 2023 with exceptions for gems, precious metals, oil and natural gas
• The measure already is approved by several ministries, including Finance and Economy, but remains under review by the federal anti-monopoly service, so discussion is being postponed for two weeks, RBC says
• The watchdog proposes extending the ban into 2024, among other changes
• NOTE: Russian companies’ contracts to sell aluminum, nickel, copper, coal, iron, steel, fertilizers and grains typically are tied to global benchmarks and indexes

Romanian Grain Production Seen Dropping 15% This Year, ZF Says

Romania’s grain production is estimated at about 30 million tons this year, smaller than in the record 2021 year, but similar to the output in 2018 and 2019, Ziarul Financiar reports, citing Florian Ciolacu, the head of Romanian Farmers Club, an association with over 1,000 farmers.

• The wheat production is seen at 9.6 million tons, corn production at 14.5 million tons, while sunflower at 3 million tons as several areas in the east and southeast of the country have been severely impacted by drought
• Rapeseed production is also estimated at about 1.6 million tons, according to Ciolacu
• NOTE: Romania Wheat Crop to Fall 17% This Year on Dry Weather: Agritel

US Fertilizer Prices Pressured as Summer Reset Accelerates

A round of aggressive summer fill programs reset the US fertilizer market lower. Phosphate and ammonia fill programs showed large declines from prompt prices in the traditional summer reset. Belaruskali continues to search for potash export options in the east as smaller Belarus potash volumes continue to arrive in non-western regions.

US Agriculture Sentiment Fell in June: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index fell to 97 points in June from 99 in May, according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.