Global Ag News for July 18.22

HEADLINES TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are up 14 in SRW, up 7 3/4 in HRW, up 8 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 8 1/2; Soybeans up 21 1/2; Soymeal up $0.22; Soyoil up 1.07.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 64 3/4 in SRW, down 69 1/4 in HRW, down 55 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 15 1/4; Soybeans down 41; Soymeal down $0.68; Soyoil down 2.05.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 93 1/4 in SRW, down 106 1/2 in HRW, down 75 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/2; Soybeans down 94 1/4; Soymeal down $12.90; Soyoil down 5.16.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 3% in SRW, up 6% in HRW, down -7% in HRS; Corn is up 4%; Soybeans up 12%; Soymeal up 5%; Soyoil up 9%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans up 2 yuan; Soymeal up 3; Soyoil up 216; Palm oil up 230; Corn down 20 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 332 ringgit (+9.25%) at 3920.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,653 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 28 Corn; 61 Soybeans; 219 Soyoil; 16 Soymeal; 79 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 15 were: SRW Wheat down 46 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,801, Corn down 8,523, Soybeans down 1,053, Soymeal up 1,655, Soyoil up 508.

Northern Plains Forecast: Scattered showers moved through the region over the weekend but there were plenty of dry areas. Temperatures increased above normal as well. A system moving through Monday and Tuesday will bring chances for severe weather near the border and some strong wind gusts but will not have much of an effect on temperatures, which will stay near or above normal then increase later in the week. Showers will move through again this coming weekend but will be spottier. Soil moisture is still favorable for most of the region, though there are some dry spots showing up where showers have been missing more. Wheat is in overall good shape, but corn and soybeans are going to need those showers as temperatures stay elevated.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: A few showers moved through northern areas over the weekend but so did higher temperatures. Few areas of the region have good soil moisture and the heat in the region will stress crops and increase the need for irrigation. Some showers may move through northern areas over the weekend, but most areas will remain dry as drought and stresses continue to mount.

Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Showers leaving Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers north Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Canadian Prairies Forecast:  Scattered showers moved across northern and eastern areas over the weekend, but southwestern areas are in need of some more moisture. A system early this week will bring moderate to heavy rain through this portion of the region, helping to reduce or eliminate the remaining drought in the region. While the storm track will continue to be through the region after this storm moves through, models only have small disturbances and scattered showers. However, most of the crop should be set up well for the remainder of the season.

 Europe Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: A few showers went through eastern areas over the weekend, but most areas remained dry. A ridge will bring more heat across the continent this week. While the northern edge of it will remain active with a couple of storm systems moving through, showers will be limited. Areas that get missed will see more stress developing for spring grains and corn.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Scattered showers moved through around an upper-level low over the weekend. The showers continue at times through the week, but will likely be spottier after Monday. Temperatures will continue to be milder so drier areas should not feel as much stress. Temperatures will increase next week though, and showers will turn isolated or absent, which could affect corn and sunflowers as they continue to go through reproductive stages of development.

The player sheet for 7/15 had funds: net sellers of 7,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 0 corn, sellers of 0 soybeans, sellers of 5,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 6,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: An importer group in the Philippines bought around 110,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat in a tender.
• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: In a separate purchase, an importer group in the Philippines bought around 40,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat in a tender.

PENDING TENDERS

• SOYMEAL TENDER: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 60,000 tonnes of soymea
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• VEGETABLE OIL TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer said on Monday it was seeking at least 3,000 tonnes of soyoil and 1,000 tonnes of sunflower oil in a local production tender for arrival Aug. 10-30. Deadline for offers is on July 6.
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: Three importer groups in the Philippines issued separate tenders to purchase a total of about 200,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP)issued a new international tender to purchase and import 300,000 tonnes of wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

China Agricultural Imports June 2022

General Administration of Customs says on website.

• June Corn Imports 2.21M Tons, -38.2% Y/y
  • YTD corn imports fell 11.1% y/y to 13.59m tons
• June wheat imports 520,000 tons, -31.3% y/y
  • YTD wheat imports fell 7.8% y/y to 4.94m tons
• June sugar imports 140,000 tons, -66.7% y/y
  • YTD sugar imports fell 13.1% y/y to 1.76m tons
• June cotton imports 160,000 tons, -4.4% y/y
  • YTD cotton imports fell 26.1% y/y to 1.14m tons
• June edible palm oil imports 70,000 tons, -79.8% y/y
  • YTD edible palm oil imports fell 73.1% y/y to 560,000 tons
• June barley imports 440,000 tons, -56.3% y/y
  • YTD barley imports fell 33.4% y/y to 3.77m tons
• June sorghum imports 930,000 tons, -14.9% y/y
  • YTD sorghum imports rose 25.7% y/y to 6.02m tons
• June pork imports 120,000 tons, -64.2% y/y
  • YTD pork imports fell 65.1% y/y to 800,000 tons
• June beef imports 230,000 tons, +42.7% y/y
  • YTD beef imports rose 1.7% y/y to 1.15m tons
• June fertilizer exports 1.86m tons, -45.1% y/y
  • YTD fertilizer exports fell 41.9% y/y to 9.43m tons

NOPA June soy crush at 164.677 million bushels

Soybean processors crushed more soybeans than expected during June, but the crush was still the smallest in nine months, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Friday.

NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 164.677 million bushels of soybeans last month, down from 171.077 million bushels in May but up 8.0% from the June 2021 crush of 152.410 million bushels.

The crush had been expected at 164.484 million bushels of soybeans last month, according to the average of estimates from eight analysts in a Reuters survey. Estimates for the June 2022 crush ranged from 160.700 million to 168.150 million bushels, with a median of 165.000 million bushels. (Full Story)

June is normally among the slowest months for soybean processing as supplies from the prior autumn’s harvest become more scarce and as numerous processing plants take downtime for seasonal maintenance.

Soyoil supplies among NOPA members as of June 30 dropped to 1.767 billion lbs, the smallest end-of-month stocks since September. The stocks were down from 1.774 billion lbs at the end of May but up from 1.537 billion lbs a year ago.

Soyoil supplies at the end of June were expected to have tightened to 1.704 billion lbs, according to the average of estimates gathered from six analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.650 billion to 1.740 billion lbs, with a median of 1.706 billion lbs.

India 2021-22 Edible Oil Imports May Fall on Demand Destruction

India’s edible imports will fall to 12.5 million-12.75 million tons in the year that began Nov. 1 as high global prices cut local demand, Atul Chaturvedi, president of Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

• “India is a price-driven market,” Chaturvedi said in the interview with Yvonne Man and Juliette Saly
• “Higher prices have actually resulted in reduced consumption”
  • NOTE: India is the world’s biggest importer of edible oils and overseas purchases totaled 13.13 million tons in 2020-21, according to the group
• India’s oilseeds production will marginally go up in 2022-23 on good rains
• NOTE: India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 13% Above Normal as of July 16
• Chaturvedi also said that India’s edible oil processors have cut retail prices of their products on government directive to pass on the benefit of a recent fall in global prices

Russia Increases Sunflower-Oil Export Quota by 400k Tons

Russia increased its sunflower-oil export quota by 400k tons, according to a government website. Quota is valid until Aug. 31

Indonesia plans biweekly setting of CPO reference price – media

Indonesia plans to set a crude palm oil reference price every two weeks so that its tax rate can move more in line with market prices, CNBC Indonesia reported on Monday, citing the trade minister.

Indonesia currently sets its palm oil reference price every month, which determines its export tax rates. It was not immediately clear when the change, which Reuters recently reported was being considered, would take effect.

Officials with the trade ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Indonesia Issues More Export Permits Based on DMO Realization

Indonesia has issued 2.88 million tons of palm oil export permits as of Monday morning with more shipments allowed on the base of domestic market obligation (DMO) program, acting Director-General of Foreign Trade Veri Anggrijono says in text messages.

• As much as 1.78m tons shipment permits issued based on the palm oil DMO program so far, Anggrijono says
• Number of permits based on export acceleration program unchanged from Friday data as companies seems to wait for exports levy waiver, he says
• Breakdown on palm oil export permits based on DMO:
  • 157,874 tons of CPO
  • 658,988 tons of RBD palm oil
  • 956,766 tons of RBD palm olein
  • 7,100 tons of used cooking oil
  • 1,260 tons of palm oil mill effluent (POME)
• Govt needs to speed up export permits issuance to double the current volume and help stockpile return to its normal level of 3m-4m tons, Indonesian Palm Oil Association secretary general Eddy Martono says by text message
  • The cost of the exports acceleration program is seen as too expensive; DMO program should be removed temporarily to boost more shipments, Martono says
  • Indonesia needs to ship at least 6m tons until August for reserves to return normal

Phosphate, Ammonia Lead US Fertilizer-Price Slide; NOLA Sturdy

Summer fill programs nudged US fertilizer prices lower again, with phosphate, ammonia and ammonium sulfate significantly below the spot market during the seasonal reset. The urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) fill program is expected in July, and prices could drop 16% from prompt levels. More-volatile urea and New Orleans ammonia moved up.

NOLA Urea, Ammonia Stay Strong in Friday Findings

New Orleans (NOLA) and inland US urea prices continued to tick up during the week, though a new India urea tender that seeks only 500,000 metric tons, rather than the anticipated 1.5 million, may temper international prices. NOLA ammonia strengthened on concerns over European gas prices, while urea ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate weakened. Phosphate and potash were flat-to-soft, with Tampa sulfur dropping $129 a long ton.

Brazilian Nitrogen Prices Tracking Lower on Narrower Demand

Urea offers in Brazil dropped $50 a metric ton this week as winter season negotiations halted on lower prices for corn, a barter item. Lower demand and a small Indian urea tender announcement limit potential nitrogen price hikes despite supply risk, partly due to surging natural gas in Europe. Phosphate and potash prices have fallen amid strong supply.

Lack of Demand Drives Steep Nitrogen Price Cut

Nitrogen-fertilizer prices in Brazil have dropped $50 a metric ton this week as farmers delay consumption following corn-price devaluations that compromised barter ratios. An Indian urea tender was announced on July 13 but failed to prompt hikes, as the request was 1 million metric tons short of expectations. Prices are unlikely to climb in coming weeks due to slow demand. But risks of hikes remain if global ammonia supply, which is tight due in part to natural gas price increases in Europe, is insufficient for upcoming seasonal demand in the northern hemisphere.

Phosphate prices dove $30-$50 a metric ton this week. Potash spreads widened as bids slipped $20 for immediate delivery and asks stayed steady. Further declines can’t be ruled out in coming weeks as suppliers seek to reduce high inventories.

Brazil Soy Area May Rise 2.6% to Record as Prices Offset Costs

Production in the 2022-23 season could reach 151.5m tons, a record-high, increasing 20.3% from the previous season, Safras & Mercado consulting firm says in a report.

• Planted area seen rising to 42.9m ha as high soybean prices offset soaring costs
• Output estimate considers an average yield of 3,550 kg/ha, up from 3,027 kg/ha past season
• Summer-corn planted area may fall 4.3% y/y
  • Production may rise on better yields
• Cotton area seen falling 2.1% y/y to 1.6m ha amid a bearish outlook for prices
  • Output may rise 1.2% to 2.7m tons on higher yields

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Firm demand and high dollar quotes boost prices in Brazil

The increase in both domestic and international demands for soybean meal has encouraged the industry in Brazil to increase purchases of the grain over the last days. This scenario boosted the competition between these agents and importers, who were attracted by the Brazilian grain due to the dollar valuation against Real and the need to complete loads for immediate delivery.

However, the increase of road freight has limited soybean sales to export, since this scenario led trades in the regional market to be more remunerating to sellers. According to data gathered by Cepea, the road freight from Cascavel (Paraná) to Paranaguá (PR) is circa 150 BRL per ton, 15% more compared to one month ago. Imea data indicates that the soybean freight from Sorriso (Mato Grosso) to Miritituba (Pará) is roughly 333.29 BRL/ton, 17.5% more in one month.

Both the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index Paranaguá (PR) and the CEPEA/ESALQ Index Paraná increased by 0.6% from July 7-14, closing at BRL 191.53/60-kilo and BRL 185.61/bag on July 14. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices rose by 0.2% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and by 1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). Dollar quotes upped 1.7% in the same comparison, at 5.434 BRL.

As for by-products, soybean oil values decreased, while soybean meal quotations moved up this week. Soybean oil prices (with 12% ICMS) dropped by 1.4% in São Paulo city between July 7 and 14, to BRL 8,039.62/ton on July 14. Concerning soybean meal, values rose by 2.4% on the average of regions surveyed by Cepea.

2021/22 CROP – Price rises in the domestic market have been limited by estimates of higher ending stocks. According to the USDA, the global production is likely to move up 0.21%, at 352.74 million tons, because of the production increase in Argentina, now forecast at 44 million tons.

As for ending stocks, the USDA estimates them at 30.74 million tons in China, stable compared to the previous report; at 22.45 million tons in Brazil (+2.74%); at 22.1 million tons in Argentina (+7%) and at 5.84 million tons in the US (+4.88%).

BY-PRODUCTS – The increase of crushing activities in Brazil and in Argentina is related to the higher demand for soybean meal and soybean oil. Brazil is likely to export a record volume of soybean meal this season (2021/22), forecast at 18.5 million tons (+2.78% compared to the previous report). Brazil may ship the highest volume of soybean oil since the 2007/08 season, estimated at 2.05 million tons, 5.13% up in the same comparison.

CORN/CEPEA: Price gap between ports and interior of BR reduces in July

Corn prices started this week moving up, but resumed decreasing over the last days, mainly at ports. The recent price drops have led values at ports to be closer to those verified in the domestic market.

The price average in Paranaguá (PR) was 6 Reais per 60-kilo bag higher than the price Index (Campinas/SP) in June – in the partial of July, the price gap reduced to only 2.74 Reais per bag. The same scenario was verified in the port of Santos (SP), with the price gap changing from 5.5 Reais per bag in June to 2.82 Reais per bag this month. It is important to mention that, in July last year, prices in the domestic market were surpassing in more than 20 Reais per bag the averages in Paranaguá and Santos ports.

Exports, in turn, continue to move at a good pace. Data from Secex indicate that, in the first six working days of July, Brazil shipped 953.34 thousand tons of corn, practically the half of the volume exported in the same month in 2021 (considering 22 working days). In case the current daily pace (158 thousand tons) remains up to the end of the month, the volume shipped may amount 3 million tons.

Prices in Brazil were underpinned by international increases early this week, due to concerns with the hot and dry weather in the US, which could harm crops. The release of supply and demand data in the United States, however, resumed pressing down both international and domestic quotes.

Domestic price drops have been reinforced by the good pace of the second crop harvest, which has led producers to be more flexible in negotiations. Many consumers, in turn, claim to have stocks or are expecting to receive batches previously traded. As a result, deals continue limited in the spot market.

In Campinas (SP), the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn closed at BRL 82.58/60-kilo bag on July 14, upping by 1.1% compared to July 7. In the partial of July, on the other hand, the Index has dropped by 1.2%. Between July 7 and 14, on the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea (spot market), corn prices moved down 0.6% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

The harvest continues to move at a good pace in most regions. In Mato Grosso, Imea data show that 74.41% of the area had been harvested up to July 8, advancing 19 percentage points in one week.

In Paraná, activities have reached 20% of the area up to July 11, according to Seab/Deral. As for Brazil as a whole, Conab says that 40% of the total area has been harvested until July 11.

Surging Crimea Shipments Point to Stealing of Ukrainian Grain

• Kyiv has accused Russia of seizing crops, selling them abroad
• Crimea food exports rose by 50 times since Russia’s invasion

The Russian-occupied peninsula of Crimea is shipping more than 50 times the volume of food it usually does at this time of year, likely indicating that seized Ukrainian grain is being taken abroad, according to analysts and the Kyiv School of Economics.

The port of Sevastopol shipped about 462,200 tons of agricultural goods such as grains, oilseeds, vegetable oils, pulses and proteins since the beginning of March, according to Geneva-based researcher AgFlow, which compiles and cross-references data based on inspection reports, bills of lading, port lineups and AIS from private sources. Last year, the port shipped about 8,000 tons.

Bumper exports from Sevastopol, which is sanctioned by the European Union and US, are a likely sign of smuggling, according to Maxigrain analyst Elena Neroba, previously based in Ukraine. The entire Crimean peninsula, which Russia occupied in 2014, usually produces between 500,000 and 900,000 tons of wheat a year, mostly for its own consumption.

“This is how Russia exports stolen grain,” Neroba said from London. “The Crimean port is large, closer and all the territory along the way is controlled by Russia.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday he doubted that the statistics on Crimean exports could be trusted since AgFlow is a Swiss company.

Ukraine has accused Russia of stealing grain from occupied regions and exporting it. Last week, Ukraine summoned the Turkish ambassador, citing an “unacceptable situation” after authorities in Turkey released a Russian vessel that Kyiv said was carrying grain seized from the Ukrainian port of Berdyansk.

While Russia denies stealing grain, it has publicly touted the resumption of grain shipments from occupied ports. Occupying authorities in Ukraine said the incident with the Turkish ship had a “geopolitical motive.” Talks over unblocking Ukraine’s ports to allow grain exports were held Wednesday in Turkey.

The Kyiv School of Economics estimates that, as of June, more than 1 million tons of grain and oil crops valued at about $600 million have been taken by Russia or damaged during the war.

Trading Looted Commodities Could Be a War Crime, Swiss A-G Says

“The first signals were in March,” KSE researcher Roman Neyter said. “We assume based on the pace that grain is being smuggled from all occupied regions.”

Most of it, though, is coming from the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in southeast Ukraine, he said. Russia has been occupying about 60% of those regions, which are at the heart of the nation’s agriculture industry.

Eleven wagons of grain were shipped from Melitopol in the Zaporizhzhia region to Crimea last month, Interfax reported, citing comments from Russia-installed governor Yevhen Balytskyi. In May, two Ukrainian traders said the Russian military confiscated grain and goods in occupied areas.

The grain primarily is going to Russian allies having problems with food security, Neyter said.

“The evidence is overwhelming,” he said. “We have some ships coming to Crimea and turning off their transponder and disappearing.”

In the past two months, at least five ships have vanished from ship-tracking systems while in the Black Sea, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s mandatory for most cargo ships to ping their locations while sailing.

Inflation at 64% Has Argentine Soy Farmers Hoarding All They Can

• Farmers have sold 11 percentage points less than a year ago
• Increased crop storage is yet another blow to food supplies

In Argentina, the top exporter of soybean products, farmers are hanging on to more of their crops than normal to defend against rampant inflation in yet another blow to global food supplies.

Growers have long used hoarding to shield against Argentina’s notoriously volatile economy, especially gyrations in currency and export taxes. But this year, spiraling inflation is exacerbating the dynamic. They’ve sold just 46% of the soy harvest, compared with 57% at the same stage last year, an analysis of government and grain exchange data shows.

The bigger-than-normal stockpiles of soybeans, often held on fields in giant sausage-shaped silobags, speak to farmers’ battle with rates of inflation that are among the highest in the world — consumer prices rose 64% in June from a year earlier, with increases forecast to quicken.

More hoarding signals slower shipments of soy oil and soy meal at a time when food supply chains are already heavily disrupted by the lingering impact of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. It also curtails hard currency flows to Argentine coffers, exacerbating debt woes.

Prices for everything are soaring — from diesel and tires for tractors, to wages for farmhands and rates charged by truckers. But a depreciation of the official exchange rate at which crop revenues are converted from dollars to pesos hasn’t been keeping pace. So rather than selling soy to exporters now, it’s better to wait for a devaluation or to avoid pesos altogether by bartering beans for inputs.

India’s Rice Farmers to Ramp Up Planting After a Delayed Start

• Quicker planting will ease concern about a possible export ban
• Area sown by top shipper so far has shrunk 17% from year ago

India’s slow monsoon progress has delayed rice sowing but farmers will be ramping up planting in the coming months, which will likely ease concern about a potential ban on exports.

The area planted by the top rice exporter has shrunk 17% this monsoon season through mid-July compared to a year ago. This is due to delayed rains in some eastern growing areas, said Trilochan Mohapatra, secretary of the Department of Agricultural Research and Education.

“There is still enough time, about three weeks, to continue planting and make up for the some of the shortfall,” Mohapatra said. “Even if there is a little reduction in area, that should not make much difference and it should not be a cause for concern.”

Traders and governments are watching India’s rice production closely after the country curbed wheat and sugar exports to safeguard domestic food security and control inflation. There are worries rice could be next, which would have a much bigger impact as India accounts for 40% of global trade. So far India has stockpiled more than enough rice and prices have been stable.

Much is riding on the monsoon in India. Patchy rains might stunt the crop and cut yields, leading to a drawdown in state inventories. That would risk triggering export curbs to ensure sufficient domestic supplies.

The monsoon, which runs from June through September, is 13% above normal so far. “I expect that by early August, area under rice will be close to last year’s levels,” said B.V. Krishna Rao, president of the Rice Exporters Association.

There’s unlikely to be any rice shortage this year, said Mukesh Jain, a director at Sponge Enterprises Pvt., a rice exporter in the state of Chhattisgarh. “Although there’s fear in the market about a possible ban on exports after sudden restrictions on wheat and sugar by the government, at present rice exports are happening smoothly.”

US Beef Production Up 14.1% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA

US federally inspected beef production rises to 547m pounds for the week ending July 16 from 479m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter up 14.2% from a week ago to 677m head
• Pork production up 13.6% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 14.4%