Global Ag News for July 12.23
China Cuts Estimate for Cotton Imports on Weak Demand: CASDE
China has cut its estimate for cotton imports in 2022-23 on weak demand from textile producers, the agriculture ministry said Wednesday.
- Imports in the year that ends in August are now seen at 1.45 million tons, some 400,000 tons less than forecast last month, according to the China Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates
- Textile manufacturers are not getting enough orders from overseas, and are consuming less cotton
- High temperatures have affected cotton growth in some of the main production regions, but crop conditions are good overall
- Heat waves also hit corn planting in parts of northern China
- Sugar supplies are tight as domestic output falls and imports drop
- Forecasts for output, consumption and imports of corn, soybeans and sugar in 2023-24 remain unchanged
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 3 3/4 in SRW, up 3 1/2 in HRW, down 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans up 14; Soymeal up $1.10; Soyoil up 1.07.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 7 1/4 in SRW, up 2 1/4 in HRW, up 15 in HRS; Corn is up 9 1/2; Soybeans up 56 1/2; Soymeal up $13.90; Soyoil up 2.67.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 5 3/4 in SRW, up 20 1/2 in HRW, up 45 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 9 1/4; Soybeans up 31; Soymeal up $2.90; Soyoil up 2.03.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 18.0% in SRW, down 6.6% in HRW, down 9.1% in HRS; Corn is down 15.5%; Soybeans up 1.7%; Soymeal down 11.1%; Soyoil up 8.8%.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 23) Soybeans down 7 yuan; Soymeal up 23; Soyoil down 28; Palm oil down 58; Corn down 28 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 39 ringgit (+1.00%) at 3928.
There were changes in registrations (4 Oats, -55 Corn, -525 Soyoil). Registration total: 1,455 SRW Wheat contracts; 448 Oats; 44 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 224 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 147 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 11 were: SRW Wheat down 1,113 contracts, HRW Wheat up 716, Corn down 9,570, Soybeans up 7,049, Soymeal down 230, Soyoil down 1,450.
Northern Plains: Fronts moving through this week will bring more scattered precipitation, but not all areas will likely see rain. Near- to below-normal temperatures are expected to reduce stress on developing crops.
Central/Southern Plains: Rainfall looks likely across the Central Plains throughout the rest of the week, which will help some drought-stricken areas. Less rainfall is expected across Texas and combined with the heat that is expected this week, some areas could see soil moisture depleted. Near- to below-normal temperatures are expected across the Central Plains this week. Conditions are mostly favorable for much of the region despite the continued drought, though rain may disrupt the wheat harvest.
Midwest: Additional fronts will drop out of Canada throughout the rest of the week with potential for more showers while temperatures stay mild. Rain is coming at enough frequency to maintain or boost soil moisture in some areas, though there are plenty that are also seeing disappointment and low soil moisture, creating mixed conditions for developing corn and soybeans.
Delta: Systems will develop along frontal boundaries throughout the rest of this week, offering daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some pockets of heavy rain are possible across Illinois and Missouri over the next five days. The widespread rainfall will continue to benefit crop growth, but areas that receive heavy rain may need to watch for flooding.
The player sheet for 7/11 had funds: net buyers of 5,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,000 corn, buyers of 5,500 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.
- BARLEY PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased about 20,000 tonnes of optional-origin animal feed barley in an international tender which closed on Tuesday
- WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 123,770 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on July 13.
- WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy a nominal 50,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat for shipment to two ports only.
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 43,000 metric tons of rice. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender is July 10.
- WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries will seek 60,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 20,000 metric tons of feed barley to be loaded by Oct. 31 and arrive in Japan by Dec. 21 via a simultaneous buy and sell auction that will be held on July 12.
CROP SURVEY: Brazil 2022-23 Corn Output Seen at 133.6M Tons
Brazil corn production seen 7.9m tons higher than the national forecast agency’s previous est., according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of seven analysts.
- The range of estimates varied from 129.6m tons to 137m tons
- Brazil’s soybean crop seen little changed from the previous est. at 155.8m tons
- Last month, the agency raised its corn output est. by 179,000 tons while increasing soybean output by 926,000 tons
- Conab, the Brazilian national supply company, is scheduled to release its latest estimates on July 13 at 9am local time
ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report
Output and stockpile projections for the week ending July 7 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
- Production seen lower than last week at 1.055m b/d
- Stockpile avg est. 22.445m bbl vs 22.26m a week ago
China increases Brazilian soybean imports amid mounting concerns about tight U.S. soybean supplies – Refinitiv Commodities Research
In the U.S., early season drought lowered soybean condition scores to well below last year’s levels across most core areas of the central and western Soy Belt. Although recent rain has partially alleviated the drought and improved crop conditions, more rain is needed to boost yield potential. Moreover, USDA’s survey-based acreage report released on 30 June reduced U.S. soybean sown area to 83.5 million acres, a decrease of 4.5% from the year earlier and well below the market expectations. The low area and poor crop conditions, together with the low carry-over stocks, risk 2023/24 U.S. soybean supplies, barring significant improvement of weather conditions in the U.S.. As the dominant soybean buyer, China increases its Brazilian soybean imports amid affordable prices and mounting concerns about shortage of U.S. soybean supplies.
According to Refinitiv’s trade flows, Brazil-to-China soybean exports increased to 8.45 million tons in June, a 3.8% increase month-on-month. Accumulated Brazil-to-China exports during February-June totaled 40.74 million tons, compared to 31.64 and 38.63 million tons for 2022 and 2021, respectively.
Considering strong soybean imports from the U.S. earlier this year, recent strong imports from Brazil keep China soybean imports at record high levels. Refinitiv trade flows tracked 9.82 million tons of soybean imports in June, a 35% increase year-on-year. Total soybean imports for the first half of the year reached 50.07 million tons, 18.3% higher than the same period last year. Although U.S. soybean imports are declining to near zero in the coming months, strong imports from South American countries (primarily Brazil) maintain China soybean imports at near record high levels. Refinitiv trade flows show that 9.26 and 7.84 million tons of soybeans are scheduled to arrive in China in July and August, well above last year’s same period.
However, China soybean imports may slow down after September when the U.S. new crop soybeans come to the market. So far, China has purchased only 1.72 million tons of U.S. new crop soybeans for 2023/24 delivery as of 29 June, compared to 7.77 million tons for last year’s same period.
EU Soft-Wheat Exports Start New Season at Half Last Year’s Pace
The European Union’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 reached about 361k tons as of July 9, compared with 665k tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.
- Leading destinations included South Africa (89k tons), Algeria 79k tons) and the US (63k tons)
- EU barley exports were at about 39k tons, compared with 253k tons
- Corn imports stood at 225k tons, against 348k tons
French 2023 Soft-Wheat Harvest Seen at Two-Year High: Ministry
This year’s soft-wheat harvest is estimated at a two-year high of 35m tons, the French agriculture ministry said in its first outlook for the year.
- Compares with 33.7m tons collected the prior season
- Yields estimated at 7.34 tons/hectare, the highest since 2019
- June rains aided crops, although they did cause some lodging, the ministry said
- Barley harvest seen at 11.9m tons, up 4.6% y/y
- Durum-wheat harvest seen at 1.3m tons, down 3.6% y/y
- Rapeseed harvest seen at 4.64m tons, up 2.5% y/y
Ukraine’s Grain Exports Rise 49% Y/y in Season Through July 12
Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2023-24 season rose to 894k tons as of July 12, compared with 598k tons a year earlier, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.
- 283k tons of wheat, double y/y
- 529k tons of corn, 22% higher y/y
- 81k tons of barley, double y/y
Tunisia to Boost Wheat Supplies After Drought and Bread Shortage
Tunisia’s Office des Cereales will raise its monthly supplies of soft and hard wheat by 7,000 tons and 5,000 tons, respectively, while accelerating distribution to millers, according to a statement posted on the website of the government’s presidency.
- Decision is part of emergency measures taken after authorities on Monday discussed recent shortages in bread in some regions: statement
- Law enforcement authorities will also intensify their crackdown on “monopolistic practices and manipulation” of wheat flour and semolina
Deal to End Canada Port Strike Is ‘Within Reach,’ Minister Says
Canadian Labor Minister Seamus O’Regan said negotiators have made progress toward a deal to end a strike by dockworkers at some of Canada’s busiest ports and he’s asked a mediator to get a final agreement done.
- The strike, which began July 1, has blocked the flow of goods through major maritime hubs on the Pacific coast, including at the Port of Vancouver and Port of Prince Rupert. The disruption has already hampered the exports of commodities and inbound shipments of manufacturing materials, while fertilizer giant Nutrien Ltd. is curtailing production at a potash mine.
- “After 11 days of a work stoppage, I have decided that the difference between the employer’s and the union’s positions is not sufficient to justify a continued work stoppage,” O’Regan said in a Twitter post. A deal is within reach and he has asked the senior federal mediator to send a written proposal of settlement terms within 24 hours, he said.
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