Global Ag News for Jan 6.23

TOP HEADLINES

China to Allow Overseas Investment in Peanut Futures, Option

China will allow overseas investors in futures and option trading of peanut, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal, according to a statement from the securities regulator.

• The permit will take effect Jan. 12
• Futures and option of peanut, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are traded at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 6 in SRW, up 3 1/4 in HRW, up 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/4; Soybeans up 9 1/4; Soymeal up $0.38; Soyoil up 0.30.

For the week and month so far wheat prices are down 39 1/4 in SRW, down 45 in HRW, down 26 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 20 1/2; Soybeans down 44; Soymeal down $0.23; Soyoil down 1.36.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.0% in SRW, down 5.1% in HRW, down 2.8% in HRS; Corn is down 3.0%; Soybeans down 2.9%; Soymeal up 3.1%; Soyoil down 1.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 23) Soybeans up 5 yuan; Soymeal down 42; Soyoil down 24; Palm oil down 48; Corn up 7 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 38 ringgit (-0.93%) at 4052.

There were changes in registrations (517 Soybeans, -20 Soyoil, -39 Soymeal). Registration total: 2,788 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 154 Corn; 698 Soybeans; 494 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 280 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 5 were: SRW Wheat up 746 contracts, HRW Wheat up 664, Corn down 3,438, Soybeans up 6,215, Soymeal up 1,162, Soyoil down 1,066.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures above normal Friday-Monday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures above normal Friday-Monday.

Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near to above normal west and near to below normal east Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday. Outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast through Sunday, above normal Monday. Outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south through Sunday, above normal Monday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

The player sheet for Jan. 5 had funds: net buyers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,000 corn, buyers of 6,500 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT, BARLEY SALE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 tonnes of soft wheat and 75,000 tonnes of animal feed barley in an international tender on Thursday
• FAILDED WHEAT TENDER: A group of importers in the Philippines is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in a tender for about 110,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat which closed on Thursday

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 113,460 tonnes of rice to be sourced from the United States. The deadline for submissions of price offers was Dec. 29.
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: An importer group in the Philippines has issued a tender to purchase around 110,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat.

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 0.8% to 24.444M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 24.643 mln bbl
• Plant production at 0.844m b/d, compared to survey avg of 0.965m

Paraguay Soy Needs More Rain Before First Harvest: Trade Group

Soy fields need more rain in January to ensure a normal harvest next month following hot, dry weather in December, says Hugo Pastore, executive director of grain and oilseed export group Capeco.

• “I’m not sure we are going to reach 9 million tons,” Pastore says in phone interview
  • “We aren’t going to have a catastrophe like last year, but neither are we going to have a super harvest”
• Rainfall this week has buoyed farmers’ hopes of a decent first harvest even though yields will suffer from cold weather in Oct.-Nov. and December’s heat
• NOTE: 2022 soy production from Paraguay’s two annual crops was the lowest in more than a decade, at about 4 million metric tons, due to drought, according to data compiled by Capeco
• Farmers could plant a second corn crop similar to last year’s record 1.1 million hectares (2.7 million acres): Pastore
  • ”We are going to have an interesting corn planting if the first soy harvest finishes in time so producers can plant without the risk of frost damage”
• Agricultural sector faces another year of low rivers and higher shipping costs unless rainfall boosts water levels
• Argentina decision to charge Paraguayan shipping a toll for using the Parana River would lead to higher costs for farmers, consumers if implemented

Argentina Soy Planting Plans at Risk From Drought: Exchange

Dryness on farms continues to impede fieldwork, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report.

• With the soy planting window closing soon, farmers may not reach goal of sowing 16.7m hectares (41.3m acres)
  • Planting is 82% complete, trailing the average for this time of year by 11 percentage points
  • Soy plants in the ground are struggling with problems typically seen in dry years
• Corn: Combination of parched fields and a forecast for hot temperatures could stop some late corn from getting planted and limit the yield potential of early corn already growing
• Wheat: The bourse said the drought’s impact has led to wheat plant yields falling to a third lower than last season

China’s Brazilian Corn Buying Spree Sidelines US Farmers

• China accounted for almost 20% of Brazil’s Dec. corn exports
• Cheaper Brazilian supplies curb appeal for US corn exports

Brazil’s corn exports to China are rising fast, taking a mounting toll on US shipments and depressing prices on the Chicago exchange.

Twenty vessels have left Brazilian ports for China since the start of December, according to Anec, the group representing Brazil’s grain exporters. More than a million tons has set sail in the past month, representing almost 20% of Brazil’s total corn exports, according to figures from shipping agency Williams compiled by Bloomberg.

It’s a remarkable amount for a nation that only began supplying China two months ago and threatens to displace US farmers from one of their key markets. China historically bought most of its corn from the US and Ukraine but decided last year to start importing the grain from Brazil, its main soybean and beef supplier, in an effort to lessen its dependence on the US.

Brazil’s record harvest last year came just in time for consumers who faced surging inflation after the war in Ukraine and low-water levels on the Mississippi River pinched global grain exports. Corn futures traded in Chicago are down 15% since their May peak, falling steadily since Brazil’s bumper crop began to hit the global market at the start of the summer.

Total US corn exports fell 47% this marketing year compared to a year ago, according to USDA data. In addition to logistical hurdles caused by a drought, US farmers also faced tougher competition from Brazil, which shipped a record amount of 43.6 million tons of corn in 2022.

Indonesia’s 2023 Palm Oil Output May Fall to 49M Tons: Kompas

Indonesia’s crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel oil (PKO) production may fall to about 49 million tons in 2023, below its three-year annual average, Kompas newspaper reports, citing Eddy Martono, secretary general of Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki.

• Output seen lower due to higher cost of fertilizers and as the ongoing replanting program lowers yield: report
• Annual average output in the last three years is 52m tons

China to auction 140,000 T of wheat on Jan 11 -trade center

China will auction 140,000 tonnes of wheat from its reserves on Jan. 11, said the National Grain Trade Center in a notice on Friday.

The sale includes 100,000 tonnes bought in 2015, 2016 and 2017 under its minimum purchase price policy, and another 40,000 tonnes of 2014 and 2015 wheat from its temporary reserve.

Grain Shipments on Mississippi River Fell 36% Last Week: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 402k tons in the week ending Dec. 31 from 626k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 38% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 33% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $28.93 per short ton, a decline of $3.99 from the previous week

Fertilizer Inventories Up in Brazil, But Prices Remain Mixed

Market participants project higher year-end fertilizer inventories in Brazil, rising to 8-10 million metric tons from 7 million at the end of 2021. Despite the increase, fertilizer prices remain mixed, with phosphates moving up as potash stabilizes and urea continues to slip.

Brazil MAP Prices Increase, Urea Declines

Fertilizer activity in Brazil was limited, with safrinha purchases nearly finished and some participants still out of the market. Monoammonium phosphate (MAP) prices were confirmed at $650-$670 a metric ton (mt) vs. the prior $640-$655, while urea slipped to $470-$490/mt, continuing a downward trend that began in September when prices were as high as $800. Sanctioned urea was selling at $460/mt as the industry awaits the next India tender, and there were reports of a distressed cargo sold as low as $450. Ammonium sulfate was unchanged at $250-$265/mt, while potash stabilized to $500-$510/mt vs. the prior $480-$520, with sellers expecting new potash sales above $520.

European Ammonia Production Back in the Black on Falling Gas

Ammonia prices are forecast to decline into 2Q as the European LNG premium ebbs. Falling European gas prices support profitability for European ammonia producers. Global ammonia demand remains soft, down 11% near the end of 4Q. Key to market direction is the US spring ammonia season, which is just before corn planting in April.

Small U.S. meatpackers get $9.6 mln boost from Biden administration

The Biden administration is awarding an additional $9.6 million in grants and loans to expand meat processing across the country, it announced on Thursday as the government tries to diversify the industry beyond four companies that have long dominated it.

The effort to expand meat processing capacity comes after COVID-19 infections among workers in large meat processing facilities decimated meat production during much of 2020, contributing to higher food prices.

The projects, funded by the U. S. Department of Agriculture, vary from a $44,000 grant to a Virginia-based farm to support the processing of pasture-raised chickens, beef cattle and hogs for direct-to-consumer sales, as well as a $4.95 million loan to an Amarillo, Texas-based meatpacker to create a new processing facility for local producers and expand retail offerings.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack said in a press conference that the programs aim to create “additional market opportunities that will hopefully create more income for farmers, more choice for consumers and more jobs in rural areas.”

Since 2021, the USDA has approved $54.6 million in grants to 278 meat producers through the Meat and Poultry Inspection Readiness Grant Program, as well as $73.14 million to 21 companies through the agency’s Meat and Poultry Processing Expansion Program, funded through the 2021 American Rescue Plan Act.

Additional money could become available for expanding meat processing later in 2023, said Vilsack.

Market concentration in meat processing has been a concern of Biden’s agriculture department. Four companies slaughtered around 85% of U.S. grain-fattened cattle in 2018, according to the USDA’s most recent data.

New processors are selected, in part, in areas where farmers have limited options to sell their livestock, Vilsack said.

Facing severe drought conditions, cattle producers across the U.S. Great Plains sent record numbers of cattle to slaughter in 2022, including breeding stock, which could result in drastically lower supplies of market-ready cattle in the coming year and challenges to the USDA’s efforts to boost slaughter capacity.